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This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, January 19, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: a welcome dip in borrowing costs, relief in insurance premiums, the latest on commercial real estate markets and capital flows, signs of both distress and recovery in the industry, and a spotlight on Miami’s surging office market.

Interest Rates Ease: Financing is getting slightly cheaper for real estate investors. Mortgage rates have finally slipped below 6% for the first time in over a year . The average 30-year fixed rate recently dipped to about 6%, down from over 7% at this time last year, spurring a wave of refinancing activity . Loan applications jumped as borrowers seized on lower rates – refinance volumes are up roughly 40% in the latest weekly survey . On the lending side, the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts late last year have brought the Fed funds range to around 3.5–3.75% . Officials are signaling a cautious stance going into 2026, with no urgent moves expected as inflation cools . Still, long-term yields remain elevated; the 10-year Treasury is hovering in the mid-4% range, so while debt is cheaper than it was a year ago, it’s not exactly cheap by historic standards. Overall, borrowing costs are down a bit, offering CRE investors some relief after the steep run-up in rates.

Insurance Premium Relief: After years of pain, property owners are finally seeing a break in insurance costs. Property insurance premiums are falling after a remarkably calm 2025 storm season . Last year was the first in over a decade with no hurricanes making U.S. landfall, and insurers have responded with increased competition and even double-digit rate reductions for many commercial policies . According to industry reports, average property insurance rates dropped about 9% year-over-year by late 2025 . Insurers have rebuilt some reserve cushion thanks to lower disaster payouts, and more players are re-entering the market . Analysts say premiums should stay lower at least through mid-2026, barring any massive catastrophes . For investors, especially in high-risk coastal markets, this is a much-needed break – after several years when insurance costs were soaring quarter after quarter, the trend has finally flipped in their favor.

National Market Update: Nationally, the commercial real estate picture is mixed but showing resilience in spots. Investment in industrial properties, for example, had a strong year: U.S. industrial real estate sales topped $68 billion in 2025 , the biggest volume since 2022. However, higher cap rates tell us investors are getting more selective – yields on closed industrial deals have risen above 7.3% on average , indicating that lower-quality warehouses are tougher to sell while prime logistics facilities still command premium pricing. In the capital markets, there’s plenty of dry powder sitting on the sidelines and corporate debt issuance has been heavy. A surge in corporate bond sales is even putting pressure on Treasury yields, keeping long-term rates up despite the Fed’s easing . Meanwhile, big real estate funds are finding ways to thrive: Blackstone’s flagship private REIT (BREIT) just reported an 8.1% return for 2025 . Data centers were the star performer for BREIT, helping turn around performance and signaling where momentum is building . This suggests that even as traditional sectors face headwinds, investors are chasing growth in niches like tech infrastructure. Overall, the capital markets for CRE are cautious but functioning – equity and debt capital is available for the right deals, even if underwriting is more rigorous entering 2026.

Distress and Recovery: We’re tracking both distress and recovery stories across the industry. In the distressed column, rising interest rates and debt maturities are exposing some shaky deals. One high-profile example is in the Sun Belt multifamily sector: a large apartment syndicator, Lurin Capital, has defaulted on over $700 million in loans amid allegations of mismanagement . The firm’s rapid rise and fall – it amassed about 10,000 units before facing foreclosure on much of its portfolio – underscores the strain on highly leveraged operators as financing costs jumped . We’re also seeing office landlords under pressure. In New York, a Midtown office building recently sold for far less than its lenders expected, frustrating the creditor’s hopes of a full recovery. High vacancies and refinancing hurdles continue to plague many office towers in big cities. On the flip side, there are clear bright spots signaling recovery. Retail real estate is one: Manhattan’s retail availability just hit its lowest level since 2017 . Storefront vacancies in prime shopping corridors like SoHo and Madison Avenue have plummeted as retailers rush to secure space, driving up rents again . The average asking rent on Madison Avenue is nearing $1,000 per square foot – the highest since before the pandemic . This retail rebound, alongside steady improvement in hotel occupancies and travel, suggests that parts of the CRE market tied to consumer activity are healing. Even in the office sector, select markets and high-end properties are finding their footing, often through creative measures (like more flexible spaces and tenant incentives). So the market narrative is really bifurcated – distress in over-leveraged or oversupplied segments, but a healthy recovery in others driven by genuine demand.

Regional Spotlight – Miami: Today we turn our spotlight to Miami, a metro that remains red-hot despite some headwinds. Miami’s office market enjoyed a banner 2025: leasing activity hit about 5 million square feet for the year, up 36% from the prior year . That surge was fueled by companies, including major finance and tech relocations, locking in space. Landlords were able to push rents higher – average office rent in Miami-Dade is now around $63 per square foot, one of the highest in the country outside of New York . Class A offices in prime areas are even topping $70 per square foot. Vacancy in Miami’s office sector has dipped to roughly 16%, improving over a point year-on-year . This shows real strength and investor confidence in South Florida as a business hub. However, Miami’s boom is not without challenges. Beneath the headline numbers, sublease space is on the rise and landlords have increased concessions to seal deals . For instance, in a notable recent transaction, the parent company of Burger King (Restaurant Brands International) opted to take a large block of space through a sublease rather than a direct lease . That reflects a trend: even in a strong market like Miami, tenants are hunting for cost savings and flexibility, and some existing offices remain underused. Still, the takeaway is that Miami’s office scene remains resilient – robust demand is outweighing the challenges, at least for now. Investors continue to pour into the Miami market, betting that its growth as a financial and tech hub will sustain high occupancy and rent levels going forward.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, January 16, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on interest rates, insurance costs, and lending conditions for commercial real estate; a check-in on national CRE trends with signs of recovery and areas of stress; and in our regional spotlight, a corporate headquarters move in Texas that underscores the challenges facing one downtown.

Mortgage and Lending Rates: Borrowing costs are starting 2026 on a lighter note. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate sits around 3.75%–4.00% after late-2025 cuts, and with inflation near 3%, markets even anticipate a possible 0.25% Fed rate cut early this year . Long-term yields have settled down – the 10-year Treasury is holding in the low-4% range – which helps calm financing costs. In fact, mortgage rates have already fallen from roughly 7% a year ago to the low-6% range now . This week the average 30-year fixed dipped below 6% for the first time since 2024 , a milestone that’s sparked a wave of refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association reports refi applications jumped 40% in early January compared to the prior week after rates slipped (the 30-year fixed is around 6.18% in their survey) . In Washington, the administration is pushing to drive rates down further – President Trump ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds to boost affordability. Housing economists say that could trim mortgage rates by another 10–15 basis points , a modest but welcome assist for borrowers. Meanwhile, commercial lenders are becoming more active. Agency lenders Fannie and Freddie raised their multifamily loan caps by over 20% to $88 billion each for 2026 , injecting more capacity for apartment deals. And the MBA forecasts overall commercial real estate lending volume will surge 24% this year after last year’s slowdown, as stabilizing interest rates encourage more financing activity.

Insurance Costs Easing: On the insurance front, property owners are finally seeing some relief after the premium spikes of recent years. Industry outlooks for 2026 show a more competitive market – for well-maintained buildings in non-disaster-prone areas, insurance rates are flattening or even edging down slightly as more insurers return to the space . In other words, if your property has a clean bill of health and isn’t in a hurricane or wildfire zone, your renewal might actually be a bit cheaper or at least no higher. However, high-risk locations and loss-prone properties aren’t in the clear yet – those still face firm rates and very picky underwriters . Elevated replacement costs and weather risks mean insurers remain cautious about anything in a CAT zone, so CRE investors with coastal or otherwise hazard-exposed assets should still budget for hefty insurance bills. Overall though, the outlook is far better than a year ago, with more capacity and even 10–30% premium drops in some layered insurance programs late last year . It’s a welcome trend as investors look to stabilize operating costs.

National Market Update: Nationally, the commercial real estate market is showing early signs of momentum as we head into 2026. Lower interest rates and robust capital availability are expected to bolster deal-making and property demand this year . In its new outlook, CBRE forecasts increased leasing activity and higher investment volumes across multiple sectors, thanks in part to easing financing pressure . Notably, the office and retail sectors – two laggards during the pandemic – appear poised for improvement. Office demand is becoming highly bifurcated: top-tier, modern office buildings in prime locations are performing well (many enjoyed positive absorption even through the worst of the pandemic) , and now as those trophy towers fill up, some tenants are finally starting to consider the next tier of buildings. Landlords of quality but slightly older offices are seeing a bit of spillover leasing interest . In fact, CBRE expects overall office leasing activity in 2026 to surpass pre-pandemic levels from 2019 – an optimistic call that reflects large occupiers coming back to the market. To be sure, not every office building will benefit – lesser-quality offices are still struggling – but the gap between shiny Class A space and the rest is creating opportunities for value-minded tenants and adaptive reuses. Retail real estate is also on a stronger footing. Essential retail categories are expanding: grocery chains, discount stores, and service-based retailers are growing their footprints, and even online-native brands have realized brick-and-mortar stores are critical to reach customers . That has shopping center landlords feeling confident again – expect solid activity especially in open-air centers and suburban shopping hubs where occupancy is high and new supply is limited . In the multifamily sector, fundamentals cooled a bit last year (national rents actually fell for five consecutive months late in 2025 amid record-high apartment vacancies) . However, demand remains uneven – certain regions like the Midwest are seeing mid-tier apartments outperform, while some Sunbelt markets work through a glut of new luxury units . Overall, apartment investors are optimistic that the worst of the supply indigestion is passing. And on the industrial side, after a breather in 2025 to absorb a wave of new warehouses, activity is set to ramp up again as e-commerce and supply chain needs continue to evolve. Last year actually ended with a rebound in sales for favored property types: industrial property sales climbed over 15%, retail property sales were up over 20%, and even office sales saw a late pickup (up 24% year-over-year by Q3) – a sign that some investors are bottom-fishing for deals at discounted prices.

Distress and Recovery: Despite higher interest rates in 2025, we haven’t seen the tsunami of distressed CRE sales that some predicted. In fact, distress in this cycle has been surprisingly contained so far. By mid-2025, only about 3% of commercial property sales were categorized as “distressed,” compared to 20% of sales that were distressed in 2010 after the Global Financial Crisis . Values have corrected – on average CRE prices fell around 10% from their 2022 peak – but that’s a far cry from the 20%+ value plunges of the last downturn . One big reason is that private real estate debt funds and other alternative lenders have stepped in to fill the gap left by banks. These debt players, especially those holding mezzanine loans, are proactively working with borrowers to prevent fire sales. Often, owners are finding ways to recapitalize rather than default – for example, bringing in a mezzanine lender to inject fresh capital and extend the runway on a troubled project. Mezzanine lenders have the right to take control if a borrower falters, and they’re using that leverage to restructure deals behind the scenes and avoid drawn-out foreclosures . This means distress is being handled more through quiet loan workouts or note sales, rather than hitting the open market at bargain-basement prices. It’s a very different pattern than after 2008, and it’s keeping outright property foreclosures relatively low. That said, stress is certainly out there. We’re seeing upticks in delinquency for some property debt – for instance, a major office landlord in San Francisco just defaulted (again) on a $1.7 billion office loan as values have slid . The office sector remains the wildcard, with older urban offices in particular facing valuation and refinancing challenges. But for now, broad contagion hasn’t materialized, and investors are sensing that we may be near the bottom. In fact, there’s a huge amount of dry powder waiting to pounce: roughly $250 billion in unused capital is sitting in private real estate funds, eyeing a market rebound . Many fund managers have been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for pricing to adjust and more motivated sellers to emerge. 2026 could be a pivotal year when that capital gets deployed . We expect to see early opportunistic deals and maybe a shift back toward core assets as price discovery concludes. Simply put, a lot of money is lined up hoping to buy the dip in commercial real estate, which could help put a floor under prices this year.

Regional Spotlight – Dallas, TX: Today’s metro to watch is Dallas, where a major corporate move is shaking the real estate landscape. Telecom giant AT&T just announced it will relocate its global headquarters from downtown Dallas to the northern suburb of Plano, aiming to open a new campus there by 2028 . This relocation is driven by several factors – AT&T cited concerns about downtown safety, the need for a modern workplace suited to hybrid work, and the appeal of a sprawling suburban site with room to grow . Plano has been attracting many corporate heavyweights (Toyota and others are already in the area), so AT&T is following a broader suburban momentum. For downtown Dallas, however, it’s a significant blow. AT&T has been a fixture in the central business district since 2008, with nearly 6,000 employees working in its downtown offices as of a few years ago . If they vacate fully, the impact could be severe: estimates suggest downtown property values might drop as much as 30% and the city could lose about $62 million in annual property tax revenue once AT&T leaves . That is a startling number that highlights how dependent the tax base is on major employers staying put. The situation in Dallas underscores a trend many cities are grappling with – as remote and hybrid work reshape companies’ location choices, shiny suburban campuses with cheaper land and easier commutes are luring firms away from legacy downtown towers. City officials in Dallas will now be tasked with finding new ways to revitalize and repurpose their downtown, especially if more big tenants follow suit. (It’s worth noting, Dallas isn’t alone here: other cities from San Francisco to Chicago have seen similar corporate migrations to the suburbs or Sunbelt regions.) On the flip side, suburbs like Plano are benefiting from the influx, gaining jobs and development. We’ll be watching how Dallas navigates this transition – from possibly converting office buildings to residential (like some projects underway in D.C. and NYC) to investing in downtown amenities – because retaining a vibrant urban core in the era of hybrid work is a real challenge. For now, this AT&T move is a wake-up call for urban commercial landlords in many markets.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael — until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, January 15, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: First, the latest on interest rates, mortgages, and insurance costs. Then, a check on the national commercial real estate market and capital flows. We’ll also discuss where distress is – and isn’t – emerging in CRE. And finally, a regional spotlight on New York City’s office resurgence.

In the debt markets, interest rates continue to ease off last year’s highs. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate is now in the 3.75% to 4.00% range after two rate cuts in late 2025 , making borrowing a bit cheaper than a year ago . Lenders are cautiously optimistic: the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts a 24% jump in commercial real estate lending in 2026 . Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have boosted their lending capacity – each raising their 2026 loan purchase cap by 20% to $88 billion – which should help get more deals financed. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding around 4.1% lately, providing some stability for long-term loan rates. In short, financing conditions are improving, even as the Fed signals a pause for now.

Bucking the recent trend, property insurance costs are finally falling for many commercial owners. After a hurricane-free 2025, insurers are competing again, and premiums have dropped by double-digit percentages in some cases . Industry data shows rates were down roughly 9% year-over-year by last quarter of 2025 . It’s a welcome relief after years of relentless insurance hikes, though experts warn that a bad storm season could quickly reverse this trend . For now, lower insurance bills are giving investors and landlords one less thing to worry about.

National Market Update: Commercial real estate is starting 2026 on a cautiously optimistic note . Investment activity is expected to rebound significantly – one major forecast projects a 16% increase in deal volume this year to about $562 billion, nearly back to pre-pandemic levels . With interest costs easing, cap rates for most property types might even compress slightly again (by 5–15 basis points) , which would modestly lift property values. Market fundamentals are mixed by sector but generally improving. Multifamily and industrial properties remain the strongest performers, retail is stable, and even the office sector is seeing selective signs of life. Prime, modern office buildings are holding up far better than older, second-tier offices , and overall leasing activity is on the rise from the lows of 2024 . Broadly speaking, the CRE industry is showing more resilience as 2026 begins, supported by an improving economy and more available capital.

Now, let’s talk about distress and recovery. Despite higher interest rates over the past year, we haven’t seen the tidal wave of forced sales that some predicted. By mid-2025, only about 3% of commercial property sales were distressed, a far cry from the ~20% share after the 2008 financial crisis . One reason is that private debt funds have stepped in to fill the gap left by banks – mezzanine lenders and other private creditors are often restructuring loans or injecting capital to prevent fire sales . In other words, much of the stress is being managed behind the scenes, in the debt stack, rather than through property foreclosures. That said, pain points remain. Just this week, a major office owner, Columbia Property Trust, defaulted on a $1.7 billion office portfolio loan for the second time – an example of how older office buildings especially are still under strain. On the flip side, some hard-hit markets are finding creative ways to recover. For instance, Washington D.C. is actively working to convert excess empty office space into housing, turning a glut of offices into a potential housing boom . It’s an innovative approach to address both the oversupply of offices and the undersupply of housing, and other cities are watching closely.

Regional Spotlight – New York City: The Big Apple’s office market is mounting a comeback unlike anything it’s seen in nearly 20 years. Manhattan saw 23.2 million square feet of new office leases signed in the first nine months of 2025 – the highest leasing volume since 2006 . Demand is being driven by a flight to quality: top-tier, modern office towers are capturing the bulk of new leases, and landlords have inked a record number of deals above $100 per square foot in rent . Big-name tenants like Deloitte, Amazon, and JPMorgan Chase are taking up large blocks of space in newly built or renovated buildings, reflecting a renewed confidence in the city . As a result, New York has already surpassed its pre-pandemic office leasing levels – a distinction few other cities can claim . In fact, office utilization in NYC hit slightly above 2019 levels last summer, even as the national office attendance average remained about 22% below pre-COVID norms . To be sure, vacancy rates are still elevated (Manhattan is around 15% vacant, nearly double the rate in late 2019) , and older buildings without renovations are struggling. But the combination of robust leasing in trophy towers and an initiative to convert some outdated offices into residences is gradually helping stabilize the market . New York’s surprising office resurgence is a welcome bright spot for the city’s commercial real estate and offers a hopeful blueprint for other urban markets.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael — until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 14, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today:

First, interest rates and lending. Borrowing costs for commercial real estate are finally easing. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate now sits in a 3.75% to 4.00% range after late-2025 rate cuts , and the 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 4.1% . These lower rates have translated into cheaper debt for investors: average long-term mortgage rates are back around 6%, down from over 7% at the 2023 peak . Lenders are cautiously optimistic that financing costs could drift lower through 2026.

Next, the insurance market. In a welcome turn, property insurance premiums are finally dropping after years of painful increases. A hurricane-free 2025 allowed insurers to rebuild reserves, spurring competition and double-digit rate cuts for many commercial policies . Marsh data shows U.S. property insurance costs fell about 9% year-over-year by last fall . Barring an unusually catastrophic 2026, owners should see some insurance relief at least into mid-year .

On the capital markets and investment front, the capital stack is gradually thawing. A surge in corporate bond issuance is competing with Treasuries and putting mild upward pressure on yields , yet easing inflation and active lenders are improving CRE debt liquidity . Investors have amassed roughly $250 billion in dry powder ready to deploy into real estate deals . With rates stabilizing and many loans maturing, the stage is set for more deal activity this year – from opportunistic buys of distressed assets to renewed appetite for stable, income-producing properties .

As for distress and recovery, we haven’t seen the deluge of forced sales that some expected. By mid-2025, distressed properties were only about 3% of CRE transactions, versus 20% after the 2008 crash . Private debt funds, especially mezzanine lenders, have been stepping in to support struggling projects and delay foreclosures . By injecting rescue capital or exercising their rights, mezz lenders are often resolving issues without drawn-out court battles – preventing the wave of fire sales many anticipated.

Meanwhile, in the Sunbelt multifamily market, pandemic-era overbuilding has turned some cities into renter’s havens. Phoenix is a prime example: more than half of new apartment listings there now advertise at least one month free rent, with some offering up to 3.5 months free . These incentives help fill luxury units built during the boom while preserving headline rents. Developers are hitting pause on new projects in oversupplied locales, expecting today’s deep discounts to fade as balance returns over the next year or so .

Finally, our regional spotlight is on Dallas-Fort Worth, where a major corporate headquarters is leaving downtown. AT&T will relocate its global HQ from Dallas’s central business district to a new campus in Plano by 2028 . The telecom giant says the move will boost efficiency and flexibility, noting the suburb offers room to grow and a safer, more convenient environment for employees . The exit is a blow to Dallas: nearly 6,000 AT&T workers are based downtown, and their departure could slash downtown property values and cost the city tens of millions in annual tax revenue . It’s a stark example of how hybrid work and suburban appeal are pulling companies away from legacy downtowns.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 13, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today:

Interest Rates and Lending: Inflation is hovering near 3%, supporting a steadier Federal Reserve stance with possible rate cuts on the horizon . The 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.1% , helping keep long-term borrowing costs in check. In fact, mortgage rates just slipped below 6% for the first time in over a year – the average 30-year fixed stands about 5.8% today . Cheaper debt is welcome news for commercial investors. Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are signaling confidence: each raised their 2026 multifamily lending cap by over 20%, up to $88 billion, to spur more deal flow . Overall, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts commercial loan volumes will jump nearly 24% this year as financing conditions improve .

Insurance Costs Easing: Property insurance is finally getting cheaper after years of painful increases. A quiet 2025 hurricane season allowed insurers to rebuild reserves, and now many owners are seeing double-digit drops in their insurance premiums . Insured disaster losses last year were the lowest since 2019, which has brought some much-needed competition back into the market. Industry experts say lower premiums should persist at least through mid-2026 . However, they caution that one severe catastrophe season could quickly reverse this relief . For now, though, falling insurance costs are providing a small boost to property cash flows across many markets.

National Market Update: Nationally, commercial real estate is starting the year with cautious optimism. Property values have stabilized – a major index showed prices up about 2% in 2025 after the prior year’s declines. Investors are slowly stepping off the sidelines as interest rates level out. Globally, real estate funds raised roughly $164 billion in 2025, and an estimated $250 billion in dry powder is now poised to target CRE deals in 2026 . We’re already seeing more bidding on smaller properties, an early sign that confidence is returning . Notably, many investors are shifting back from high-risk tactics toward steadier, income-focused assets. In fact, opportunistic and value-add funds dominated last year’s fundraising, but there’s growing interest in core real estate plays again – pension and institutional buyers are gravitating to stable properties as they position for a recovery . All of this suggests the market is trying to find a footing, with capital beginning to flow toward deals that pencil out in the current rate environment.

Distress and Opportunity: Yet, not everything is rosy. Distress in the office sector continues to make headlines. Just this week, Columbia Property Trust defaulted again on a $1.7 billion loan tied to a seven-building office portfolio, as values keep sliding and refinancing remains difficult . Many downtown office towers are struggling with high vacancies and looming debt maturities. Even so, the wave of forced sales some expected has not materialized – only about 3% of recent CRE sales are distressed, compared to 20% after the 2008 crash . One big reason is that private debt funds are stepping in behind the scenes. Mezzanine lenders, in particular, have been adding capital to troubled projects to delay foreclosures, using their position in the capital stack to negotiate workouts and avoid fire sales . This means fewer properties are hitting the auction block at steep discounts. At the same time, opportunistic investors are on the hunt. In one bullish move, a joint venture led by Elliott Management is taking City Office REIT private in a $1 billion deal – a bet that Sun Belt office buildings (even beleaguered ones) can recover with the right strategy. It’s a reminder that where some see distress, others see opportunity.

Regional Spotlight – Washington, D.C.: The nation’s capital is tackling its office glut by turning empty buildings into housing. Washington, D.C. now has over 6,500 apartment units in the pipeline from office-to-residential conversions, second only to New York . Office vacancy in D.C. hit a record 22.8%, largely due to federal offices downsizing and more remote work . In response, developers – aided by city incentives – are racing to repurpose underused properties. One marquee project near Dupont Circle will transform a pair of old office towers into 530 apartments, backed by a $750 million investment by Post Brothers and innovative financing like $575 million in C-PACE funding . The conversion push hasn’t been easy: that Dupont project faced an 18-month financing delay as lenders grew skittish amid D.C.’s uncertain outlook and potential federal job cuts . But with a 20-year tax abatement on the table, the developers are moving forward. All told, Washington’s aggressive pivot from offices to apartments reflects a broader trend in many cities. It’s a bet that scrapping some excess office space for much-needed housing will breathe new life into downtown. If it works, D.C. could emerge with a more balanced real estate landscape – fewer vacant offices, more places for people to live – but much depends on execution and whether the local economy can stabilize to support these new residences .

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, January 12, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on interest rates and financing costs, a check on the national commercial real estate market with both distress and recovery in focus, and a regional spotlight on Atlanta’s CRE scene.

Good morning. Interest rates remain a central theme as we kick off the week. After a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts late last year, borrowing costs for commercial real estate have stabilized at roughly the mid-6% range . The 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady in the low-4% territory , which is helping to keep long-term mortgage rates in check. This stability has started to thaw the deal market – buyers and sellers are regaining confidence. In fact, institutional CRE sales activity picked up by about 17% in 2025 as the market adjusted to higher rates . Lenders are still cautious, but there’s a sense that the worst of the rate shock is behind us for now.

Insurance costs are another critical factor for CRE investors, and there’s a bit of good news here. After the turbulent premium spikes of 2023–24, the commercial property insurance market has begun to steady. Insurers have slowed their rate hikes, and competitive pressure is returning in many coverage lines . For well-located properties with solid risk controls, insurance renewals are coming in flat or even slightly lower heading into 2026 . That’s a relief for owners’ bottom lines. However, it’s a tale of two worlds: catastrophe-exposed markets – think coastal hurricane zones or wildfire-prone areas – are still seeing insurers demand hefty premiums, high deductibles, and stricter terms . So while insurance is no longer spiraling upward everywhere, it remains a pain point in high-risk regions, squeezing property cash flows there.

On a national level, the commercial real estate capital markets are showing resilience in select areas. Despite higher interest rates, lenders and investors are finding ways to get deals done for the right projects. Last year saw a robust comeback in commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance – around $130 billion in 2025, nearly back to pre-financial-crisis volumes . Heavy loan maturities forced many refinancings, and strong investor demand for quality assets kept the CMBS market active. Traditional banks, too, cautiously stepped up CRE lending toward the end of 2025, and forecasts call for modest lending growth on the order of 2–3% this year . Importantly, all this capital is highly selective. Lenders have money to deploy, but only for solid deals. Strong, well-leased properties with good sponsors can still finance and even see values hold, whereas weaker assets are being left on the sidelines . The market is clearly diverging by quality and sector – tech-aligned niches like data centers are booming, and even essential retail centers are thriving, while aging office buildings and other specialized assets are facing serious challenges .

Let’s talk about distress and recovery. Overall, commercial real estate is working through a backlog of challenges from the past few years. We continue to see a bifurcated picture. Many property types are on a slow mend – for example, hotels and travel-oriented properties enjoyed a strong rebound as tourism and business travel returned, and multifamily apartments are maintaining stable occupancy with modest rent growth in most markets. Even retail is showing signs of life: in some metros, grocery-anchored shopping centers are at record occupancy levels (Dallas–Fort Worth, for instance, hit 95.3% occupancy last year, an all-time high ). On the other hand, the office sector remains the industry’s trouble child. Office vacancies are high, rents are under pressure, and property values have fallen sharply for older and less adaptive buildings. By the end of 2025, the overall commercial mortgage delinquency rate had climbed to roughly 7.3%, and offices were by far the worst segment – office loan delinquencies spiked to about 11%, an all-time high . Lenders and owners are responding with whatever measures they can. We’re seeing a wave of loan workouts, extensions, and even owners handing back the keys on office properties that just don’t pencil out anymore . It’s a painful process, but it’s also a necessary one to reset valuations and eventually find a market clearing price. The flip side is that better-quality assets – the newer, well-located, amenitized buildings – are still managing to refinance and even attract buyers, often at only slight discounts. This “sorting out” phase means 2026 won’t be a broad rebound for CRE, but we are gradually seeing clarity: the market is figuring out which assets will thrive and which will need to be repurposed or liquidated.

Now for our regional spotlight, we’re looking at Atlanta, Georgia – a metro that encapsulates both the boom and the stresses in today’s market. Atlanta has been a growth story in recent years: strong population and job gains, corporate relocations, and a diversified economy have fueled demand for commercial space. The metro’s industrial warehouses are bustling thanks to logistics and e-commerce, and its multifamily sector remains solid with so many people moving in. Retail has been healthy as well, with well-located shopping centers benefiting from the population influx. But even a thriving market like Atlanta isn’t immune to the office downturn. A striking example just unfolded in the upscale Buckhead submarket: the 27-story Resurgens Plaza, once considered a trophy office tower, fell into distress. Its owner defaulted on an $89 million loan, and rather than face foreclosure, they handed the keys over via a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure . A California investment firm known for mall properties stepped in and took title to the building, marking one of the more high-profile office loan workouts in Atlanta. This illustrates that even in high-growth Sun Belt cities, older office towers can struggle in the current environment. The hope is that new ownership and a lower debt load will reposition assets like Resurgens Plaza for a second life. Overall, Atlanta’s outlook remains upbeat – its strengths in logistics, tech, and film production continue to draw investors – but stories like this Buckhead tower show how pockets of distress are being worked through, even amid a generally resilient market.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, January 9, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on financing conditions – from mortgage rates to insurance costs – plus a look at national commercial real estate trends, signs of distress and recovery, and a spotlight on the booming Dallas–Fort Worth market.

Interest Rates and Lending: After a long stretch of rising interest costs, CRE investors are seeing some relief. The Federal Reserve’s late-2025 rate cuts have brought its benchmark down to about 3.5–3.75% . Markets anticipate additional easing this year, though Fed officials signal caution about how much . One thing is clear: the days of ultra-cheap money are over . Roughly 6% borrowing costs are the new normal for many commercial deals . The upside? This stability is thawing the market. Lenders remain busy refinancing a wave of maturing loans – an estimated $936 billion in commercial mortgages comes due in 2026 . And after a prolonged stalemate on asset values, buyers and sellers are finally meeting in the middle. In fact, institutional CRE sales activity jumped about 17% toward the end of 2025 as price expectations aligned . In short, capital is flowing again, with investors cautiously optimistic going into 2026.

Insurance Costs: On the insurance front, commercial property owners are still feeling the squeeze. Insurers have tightened underwriting standards and raised premiums, even withdrawing from some high-risk regions after recent catastrophe losses . While markets with lower risk have seen rates level off, properties in hurricane-, wildfire-, or flood-prone areas face steeper costs and higher deductibles . Elevated insurance expenses continue to challenge deal underwriting and property budgets as we start the year.

National CRE Market Update: Broadly, the U.S. commercial real estate market is showing resilience after a volatile period. With interest rates stabilizing, the logjam in dealmaking has broken up – as noted, transaction volumes are on the rise . Investors have more clarity on pricing now that financing costs have steadied. According to one industry survey, a majority expect core real estate fundamentals and the cost of capital to improve through 2026 . Debt markets are also reviving: even the CMBS (commercial mortgage bond) market saw a surge in issuance in 2025, hitting the highest volume since 2007 . Ample refinancing needs and slightly lower interest rates are keeping lenders active. Overall, there’s a cautious sense that the worst of the slowdown is behind us – though nobody is calling this a boom, steady confidence is replacing panic .

Distress and Recovery: That said, not all sectors are in the clear. The office sector remains a notable weak spot. Remote and hybrid work are here to stay, pushing office vacancies up and property values down, which in turn raises default risks for office landlords . Lenders and owners are closely watching for distress in older office buildings with looming debt maturities. On the brighter side, retail real estate is a tale of two worlds.  Neighborhood shopping centers – especially those anchored by grocery stores – have become surprise outperformers, with U.S. vacancy rates around just 5%, the lowest in over a decade . These necessity-based centers are benefitting from limited new supply and consumers staying closer to home . In contrast, some legacy mall properties are struggling. One high-end department store chain is reportedly on the brink after missing a $100 million interest payment , and a planned $947 million sale of former JCPenney stores just fell apart – stark reminders of the challenges in repurposing large, outdated retail spaces. Across other sectors, apartments and industrial properties remain in high demand, while hotels have seen gradual recovery with improving occupancy and room rates as travel rebounded late last year . It’s a mixed landscape, but generally the trend is stabilization rather than deterioration as we head into 2026.

Regional Spotlight – Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW): Today we highlight the Dallas–Fort Worth metro, which continues to thrive and attract investor attention. DFW was recently named a top U.S. real estate market for 2026 in a prominent industry outlook, thanks to its booming population, corporate relocations, and diversified economy . The metro’s strengths are evident in the data: retail occupancy in DFW is projected to hit a record high of about 95.6% , as rapid growth by grocers and big-box retailers fuels demand for shopping center space. (Texas grocer H-E-B’s aggressive expansion into North Texas, for example, has prompted rivals like Walmart to build new stores – a retail development surge that benefits local real estate .) Recent deals underscore the confidence in this market – for instance, The Shops at Legacy North in Plano sold for $78 million , a hefty price that highlights deep institutional appetite for quality suburban assets. And development is not slowing down: just this week, developers broke ground on a $750 million mixed-use, transit-oriented project in Plano , betting big on the live-work-play model that continues to draw people and businesses to the region. From industrial warehouses to data centers and retail plazas, DFW’s momentum exemplifies how Sun Belt markets are leading the way in the current CRE cycle.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, January 8, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: mortgage rates have dipped to 15-month lows as the Fed eases off the brakes; commercial insurance costs are finally stabilizing; and capital is cautiously returning to the real estate market. We’ll also highlight which CRE sectors are showing distress or recovery, and take a close-up look at the booming Dallas–Fort Worth metro.

Interest Rates and Financing: The interest rate environment is offering a bit of relief to investors. The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut last month brought its benchmark rate down to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest level since 2022 . That shift, plus cooling inflation, has helped pull long-term rates down slightly. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.2% , and mortgage rates have crept down accordingly – the average 30-year fixed mortgage sits at roughly 6.16%, about the lowest we’ve seen in over a year . In short, the era of ultra-cheap money is over, but rates have leveled off. Borrowing costs around 6% are pretty much the new normal for commercial deals , and that newfound stability (even at higher rates) is starting to “crack the ice” in dealmaking . Lenders and investors, knowing what to expect, are tiptoeing back into the market.

Insurance Market Relief: After a volatile few years, commercial property owners are finally seeing some stability in insurance costs. 2025 brought huge insured losses early on, but a quieter finish to the year has eased the pressure on insurers . As we enter 2026, the property insurance market is looking competitive and even softening for quality assets . Policy renewals late last year were flat or even down for many customers, and early 2026 trends point to further rate relief – especially for well-maintained buildings with low claims . There’s more insurance capacity in the market now, which means owners can secure higher coverage limits and better terms in many cases . It’s a welcome break for investors who have been hit with rising insurance premiums in recent years.

Capital Markets and Deal Activity: Nationally, commercial real estate is starting 2026 with a renewed sense of optimism. After a year of uncertainty, confidence in the CRE sector is building: capital is flowing again, interest rates are inching lower, and leasing fundamentals are stabilizing . In fact, 2025 appears to have marked a turning point. Debt became cheaper and more available as the year went on, and by the end of 2025 we saw lending volumes and property sales picking up significantly . Institutional real estate sales rose by roughly 17% in the latter part of the year , a clear sign that buyers and sellers finally reached common ground on pricing . The painful price discovery phase – where buyers demanded big discounts and sellers clung to 2021 values – has largely run its course. With valuations reset to more realistic levels, deals are getting done again . There’s a feeling that the big correction is behind us and that 2026 could reward the patience of those who weathered the storm .

Distress and Recovery: Of course, not every corner of the market is rosy – we’re seeing a real divergence between winners and losers. Let’s start with a bright spot: neighborhood retail centers. These community shopping centers have become an unexpected success story. Vacancies in U.S. neighborhood retail hit their lowest level in over a decade last year (around just 5% empty) . Limited new construction and work-from-home habits have kept people shopping and dining close to home, so well-located grocery-anchored centers are packed with tenants . Landlords in this segment have gained pricing power as space grows scarce. On the flip side, some legacy retail properties are under serious stress. For example, an iconic luxury department store chain is reportedly teetering on bankruptcy after missing a $100 million interest payment . And in another sign of distress, a nearly $1 billion deal to buy over a hundred old mall stores just fell apart when the buyer missed its deadline . Those huge, aging retail boxes – think former big-name department store locations – are proving very hard to repurpose and sell. It’s a reminder that even as consumer spending remains solid, yesterday’s formats are still struggling. We see a similar split in the office sector: top-tier, modern office buildings in prime locations are capturing demand (some major markets even saw positive office leasing momentum in 2025 ), but many older office buildings remain half-vacant and facing an uncertain future. In short, quality is king – whether in retail or office – and outdated assets are feeling the pain as we start the new year.

Regional Spotlight – Dallas–Fort Worth: Now let’s turn to our regional spotlight. Today we’re looking at Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW), a metro that’s kicking off 2026 with significant momentum in commercial real estate. DFW has consistently ranked as one of the nation’s top real estate markets for investors – it’s again a top prospect for 2026 in industry surveys – and much of that buzz comes from its booming retail sector. Retail occupancy in North Texas is nearing record highs. In fact, local retail centers are about 95% occupied, an almost unheard-of level of tightness . What’s driving it is DFW’s explosive population and job growth: people and companies keep flocking to the area, and developers can hardly build new shopping centers fast enough to meet the demand. Just recently, a $750 million mixed-use project broke ground in Plano, reflecting confidence that the suburban “live-work-play” model is thriving here . Another telling sign: the fierce grocery competition in the region. Beloved Texas grocer H‑E‑B has been expanding aggressively into North Texas, and it’s sparked a response from the incumbent giant. Walmart is actually building new Supercenters in the Dallas area – its first new stores here in over a decade – to defend its turf . That is a major vote of confidence in DFW’s long-term growth. When you see the biggest retail players investing like that, it not only brings more retail development around those sites, but also reassures investors that this metro will continue to be a retail growth engine. Overall, Dallas–Fort Worth’s formula of relentless population gains, corporate relocations, and relative affordability is underpinning one of the strongest real estate markets in the country as we head into 2026 .

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 7, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today:

The interest rate environment continues to shift. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate sits around 3.5% after recent cuts , and markets are anticipating a couple more trims later this year even as the Fed’s own projections suggest maybe only one . Long-term borrowing costs remain elevated – the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.2% – which means financing isn’t cheap. In fact, borrowing costs of roughly 6% have become the new normal for commercial deals . The silver lining is that this new rate stability has thawed the deal market: buyers and sellers are finally aligning on pricing, and institutional sales activity jumped about 17% in 2025 as capital came off the sidelines . On the insurance front, we’re seeing some relief. After the steep premium hikes of 2023–24, rate momentum has cooled and competition is returning in many insurance lines , though properties in disaster-prone areas still face cautious underwriting .

Nationally, commercial real estate is cautiously finding its footing. Analysts say we’re moving past “peak uncertainty” into a phase of renewed momentum and clarity, with a growing sense of optimism in the market . Monetary policy has eased off the brakes – the rapid rate hikes are behind us – and even a trickle of federal infrastructure spending is helping to stabilize the outlook . Still, the recovery is highly uneven. The story going into 2026 is sectoral divergence : certain segments are surging while others lag. Everyone’s watching the tech-driven niches like data centers (benefiting from the AI boom), but perhaps the biggest surprise is the resilience of retail. Essential retail – think grocery-anchored shopping centers – is thriving thanks to shifting work and shopping patterns, with U.S. neighborhood center vacancies at their lowest in over a decade . Investors are taking note that high-growth metro areas such as Dallas–Fort Worth are amplifying these positive trends . Overall, valuations in core property types have started stabilizing and credit markets are reopening for business . That said, not all is rosy: troubled spots remain, particularly in older offices and some specialized sectors , so selectivity will be key going forward.

Now, let’s talk about distress and recovery developments. The commercial real estate shakeout of the past two years isn’t over yet, but there are mixed signals. On one hand, high-profile defaults are still making headlines. In New York City, the 49-story Worldwide Plaza office tower is headed for a foreclosure auction next week after its owners defaulted on a $1.2 billion mortgage . The tower’s occupancy has plunged to barely 63% , and an appraisal slashed its value from $1.7 billion to just $345 million – an 80% collapse in value that starkly illustrates the pressure on big urban offices . Down in Texas, the new year is bringing a similar theme: roughly $826 million in troubled commercial loans across the major Texas markets are slated for foreclosure auctions this month . That’s a bit lower than December’s volume, but still much higher than last fall’s levels . Most of these at-risk loans are tied to multifamily properties, with a notable chunk in hotels as well – a sign that higher interest rates and expenses have been squeezing property owners beyond just the office sector.

On the other hand, there are glimmers of improvement. Recent data show that overall commercial mortgage delinquencies crept up only slightly at the end of 2025, to about 7.3% , and importantly, the office sector actually notched a second consecutive month of improved performance . Office loan delinquency rates, while still high at around 11.3%, have been ticking down – a hint that the worst might be stabilizing for higher-quality offices . In fact, office properties were the only major category that saw a net reduction in delinquent loans late in the year, an unexpected bright spot as we head into 2026 . By contrast, stress is now showing up elsewhere: retail mortgages led new delinquencies in December , reminding us that even the resilient retail sector has weaker pockets (particularly in older or luxury retail formats) that bear watching. Still, the big picture is that capital is starting to flow again and lenders are cautiously refinancing strong assets – though 2026’s mantra seems to be only the robust will refinance under today’s stricter underwriting standards .

For our regional spotlight today, we turn to Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas – a metro that continues to defy gravity in many ways. DFW is benefiting from structural strengths that many other markets envy: relentless population growth, diversified job gains, and a stream of corporate relocations have made it a top real estate market again for 2026 . Those fundamentals provide a defensive buffer and steady demand that bolster property performance . One area where this is most visible is the retail sector. North Texas has become a retail growth engine – so much so that major grocers and big-box chains are engaging in a kind of arms race to expand there. As a result, retail occupancy in DFW has surged to record levels. Local shopping center vacancies are extraordinarily low; in fact, DFW’s retail occupancy is expected to hit about 95.6%, an all-time high . That figure would have sounded unbelievable a few years ago, but it’s real – driven by aggressive expansion (for example, beloved Texas grocer H-E-B’s entry into the market has spurred competitors like Walmart to build new stores) and strong consumer spending in the suburbs . With so much demand, investors are paying attention: we’ve seen high-quality suburban retail centers trade at hefty prices, and capital keeps chasing deals in this region . Meanwhile, other property types in Dallas are positioning for a rebound as well. The oversupply of apartments that peaked in 2025 is easing – the construction pipeline has pulled back by over 70% since then – and with people continuing to flock to DFW, experts predict a sharp recovery in rent growth by late 2026 as the market rebalances . Even the office market there has a unique bright spot: some local companies are buying older office buildings to convert into their own headquarters, taking vacant space off the market and breathing new life into outdated properties . All told, Dallas–Fort Worth exemplifies how a high-growth, diverse metro can weather the broader CRE storm – it’s become a magnet for “smart money” looking for stability and upside .

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 6, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: First, an overview of how the mortgage, insurance, and lending rate landscape is shaping commercial real estate deals as we kick off 2026. Then, we’ll get into the latest national commercial real estate news and capital markets updates – including some surprising strength in retail and what that means for investors – along with commentary on lending conditions, deal activity, and signs of distress or recovery to watch. And finally, our regional spotlight will focus on North Texas, one of the hottest markets going into this year.

Let’s start with the big picture on capital costs. Interest rates are down from their peak but still a far cry from the rock-bottom levels of the early 2020s. The Federal Reserve eased its benchmark rate to around the mid-3-percent range by the end of last year after inflation showed signs of cooling. Now, markets are hoping for a couple more small rate cuts in 2026, but Fed officials are signaling they may only trim rates once more – if at all – in the near term. In other words, the era of ultra-cheap money is over for now. Commercial mortgage borrowing costs have settled around a new normal of roughly 6% interest for many property loans. The silver lining is that this stability, even at higher rates, has given buyers, sellers, and lenders a clearer framework to underwrite deals. It’s a welcome change from the volatile rate swings of the past two years, which made it incredibly hard to price assets. And that stability comes at a critical time, because the industry is staring down a huge refinancing test: roughly $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature in 2026. A lot of those loans were made when interest rates were near historic lows, so borrowers will be refinancing into much higher rates today. Many lenders are offering extensions or creative workout solutions, and hoping property incomes will rise to bridge the gap. But inevitably some owners will struggle to replace their old debt. This looming “debt wall” is one of the key risk factors for the year ahead – it could lead to more distressed sales or defaults if credit conditions don’t improve enough.

Now, another financial pressure on real estate is coming from an unexpected side: insurance. Property insurance costs have been soaring over the past few years, fueled by everything from inflation in construction costs to an upswing in natural disasters. We’re talking hurricanes, wildfires, floods – billions in insured losses that have forced insurers to hike premiums across the board. The good news is that in late 2025 we started to see those premium increases finally begin to stabilize. Insurers have brought more competition back into some markets and are pushing clients to invest in risk mitigation (like better sprinklers or storm-proofing) in exchange for more reasonable rates. But “stabilizing” still means premiums are at very high levels, and it remains a major headache for property owners. This is especially true in sectors like multifamily housing, where landlords can’t simply jack up rents overnight to offset a doubling in insurance costs. Rising insurance bills are eating into net operating incomes and complicating deals, particularly in regions prone to disasters such as coastal Florida or wildfire areas out West. So while the worst may be over for insurance inflation, it’s an issue that will continue to influence investment decisions and property valuations in 2026.

Shifting to the broader commercial real estate market, there are signs that we’ve entered a new phase – one of cautious optimism. Nationally, deal activity is starting to revive after a prolonged slump. In the last quarter of 2025, we saw a notable uptick in property sales volume, especially by institutional investors. Essentially, buyers and sellers have finally adjusted their expectations to the new interest rate reality. For much of 2024 and early 2025, the market was frozen: sellers were holding out for prices from 2021’s boom, while buyers demanded discounts to make deals pencil out at 6% financing. That standoff created a stalemate, but now it seems to be breaking. With interest rates stabilizing and everyone recognizing that those 2021 valuations aren’t coming back, more transactions are clearing. Sellers have become more realistic, and buyers are moving off the sidelines now that they feel prices truly reflect the higher cost of capital. This is a healthy development – price discovery is happening, and capital that sat on pause is starting to flow into deals again.

Where is that capital flowing? Lenders and investors are being picky, but they’re favoring segments with stable cash flow and strong fundamentals. One surprise winner has been the humble neighborhood shopping center. Yes, retail – but not the flashy malls of yesterday. We’re talking about your local grocery-anchored strip centers and everyday essential retail. These properties have demonstrated remarkable resilience. National vacancy rates for neighborhood retail are hovering around just 5%, the lowest level in over a decade. Who could have imagined that a few years ago, when “retail apocalypse” was the buzzword? It turns out that limited new construction and changing consumer patterns have played to the advantage of these convenience-oriented centers. With more people working from home or on hybrid schedules, they’re shopping closer to where they live. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and coffee shops in suburban strips are pulling in steady traffic, and landlords are enjoying solid occupancy and rent growth. Investors have caught on – these grocery-anchored centers are now seen as relatively defensive, recession-resistant assets.

Contrast that with the more challenged corners of retail: we’re seeing a real bifurcation. At the other end of the spectrum, many large legacy retail properties are struggling. Just look at some of the high-end department store chains and aging mall anchors – they’re under serious pressure. In fact, one prominent luxury department store reportedly missed a hefty interest payment recently and is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. And a nearly $1 billion deal to sell off a portfolio of old mall stores fell apart late last year when the buyer couldn’t line up the financing, leaving a heap of big-box spaces still in limbo. Redeveloping those kinds of properties is tough; it takes significant capital and vision to turn an empty anchor store into something like a medical center, apartments, or warehouses. So, while retail overall is faring better than many expected, success is very location- and format-specific. The takeaway: necessity-based retail is thriving, but discretionary, mall-based retail is still facing an uphill battle.

Let’s talk office – the most talked-about trouble spot since the pandemic. The office sector’s story in 2026 remains a tale of two worlds. On one hand, the top-tier “trophy” office buildings – the modern, amenity-rich towers in prime locations – are holding their own. Companies that are committed to in-person work (at least a few days a week) want space that wows employees, so the flight to quality is real. Nationally, vacancies for Class A offices have been stabilizing, and in some major markets the best buildings are maintaining occupancy rates far better than the rest. But then there’s the flip side: the vast stock of older, lower-quality office buildings. Many of those are still languishing with high vacancy and uncertain futures. Tenants have been giving up or downsizing space, and new leasing demand isn’t enough to fill the gap. We’re seeing more owners of these B and C class offices throw in the towel – some are selling at a loss to adaptive-reuse developers, others are defaulting on loans and handing keys back to lenders. A few cities are pushing office-to-residential conversion programs, but realistically that only works for a fraction of these buildings due to cost and design challenges. Interestingly, we have started to see some big financing deals that signal hope in this arena: for example, a major Manhattan office tower secured nearly $900 million to convert into apartments, indicating lenders will get behind conversion projects that make economic sense. So the office sector in 2026 will continue to be a mixed bag: look for well-leased modern offices to perform solidly, while obsolete offices face a day of reckoning (or a creative overhaul) in the years ahead.

In other sectors, fundamentals remain relatively solid. Industrial properties – warehouses, distribution centers – are still in high demand thanks to e-commerce and companies retooling supply chains, though an absolute frenzy of warehouse development over the last couple of years means vacancy rates might tick up slightly in some markets. Even so, industrial vacancy nationally is low by historical standards, and rent growth, while moderating, is still healthy. Multifamily (apartments) likewise had a construction boom; a record number of new apartments opened in 2025. That new supply is tempering rent growth a bit and pushing apartment vacancy slightly higher in a few cities. But the flip side is that high mortgage rates and home prices are keeping many would-be homebuyers in the renter pool, so demand for apartments is expected to keep growing. Most analysts foresee the rental market staying pretty balanced – any softening will likely be temporary until the new units get absorbed. Meanwhile, hotel and hospitality properties are enjoying the rebound in travel, though they too are contending with higher operating and insurance costs. Overall, the commercial real estate landscape is showing a resilience that seemed hard to imagine during the darker moments of the past couple years. It’s not without challenges, but many sectors have adapted in creative ways.

Before we wrap up, it’s time for our Regional Spotlight. Today we’re zeroing in on North Texas – the Dallas-Fort Worth metro – which is kicking off 2026 as one of the most robust real estate markets in the country. DFW has consistently been a darling of investors and a top-ranked market in industry outlooks. In fact, for the second year in a row, the Urban Land Institute’s annual report (done with PwC) named Dallas-Fort Worth the No. 1 U.S. real estate market for overall prospects. And it’s not hard to see why. The region boasts a powerful combination of factors: a fast-growing population, business-friendly economics, and ongoing corporate relocations bringing jobs into the area. That translates into demand for just about every kind of real estate – from apartments and houses for all those new residents, to warehouses and offices for expanding companies, and everything in between.

One segment where North Texas really shines is retail. Earlier we mentioned how strong neighborhood retail is nationally; well, DFW is a prime example of that strength. The metro’s retail occupancy is near record highs – roughly 95% of retail space is filled, which is incredible for a major market. Bidding wars have even broken out among grocery chains entering the market. Texas’ beloved grocer H-E-B has been expanding in the Dallas area, and established players like Walmart have responded by building new stores – their first new DFW stores in over a decade – to defend their turf. This competition is actually great news for real estate: it’s spurring development of new shopping centers and driving up values for existing ones. Just a few weeks ago, an open-air shopping complex in Plano (one of Dallas’s booming suburbs) sold for about $78 million – a huge number that underscores investor confidence in the region. High-quality suburban retail assets in North Texas are in hot demand, and that sale is a testament to the liquidity and appetite out there for the right product.

It’s not just retail. The Dallas metro area continues to see large-scale projects across asset types. There’s ongoing growth in industrial and tech facilities – for instance, a massive new semiconductor factory is under construction just north of Dallas, which is expected to anchor a wider high-tech manufacturing hub. Data centers are another big story: with the race to build AI and cloud computing infrastructure, Dallas has emerged as a key location, though there’s so much demand that even power capacity for new data centers is becoming a constraint. On the office front, Dallas mirrors the national trend of a flight to quality. The difference is that in Texas, some local companies are actually purchasing older office buildings at discounted prices to convert into their own headquarters, taking advantage of the buyer’s market for underused offices. This owner-user trend in DFW is helping take some aging offices off the speculative leasing market. And in multifamily, Dallas saw a flood of new apartments last year, which temporarily cooled rents. But developers have since pulled back on new projects, and with the population still rising fast, many expect Dallas’s apartment market to tighten up again and rents to rebound later in 2026. All told, North Texas enters this year with strong momentum. It has its challenges – like infrastructure keeping up with growth – but it remains a region to watch, exemplifying many of the positive themes in today’s real estate landscape.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!