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This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, September 15, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: the Federal Reserve looks ready to cut interest rates amid a slowing economy; major players are closing big real estate deals across apartments, retail and more; and rising loan defaults are pushing commercial real estate distress to new highs.

First, the macro backdrop is tilting toward lower interest rates. Inflation has settled near the Fed’s target, but the labor market has hit a wall. August saw almost no job growth, and prior months were revised down sharply – unmistakable signs the economy is losing momentum. With price pressures modest and growth faltering, the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter point at its meeting this week. For commercial real estate, a rate reduction would be welcome news: cheaper debt could breathe life into deals and refinancings that stalled when borrowing costs surged. However, that relief comes only because the economy is weaker – easier credit might spur activity, but weaker growth could also mean softer demand for space. CRE investors are happy about the prospect of lower financing costs, but they’re staying cautious given the economic headwinds behind it.

Next, despite uncertainty, big deals are still happening in commercial real estate. August’s transaction volume dipped slightly after a busy July, but we still saw several headline deals across sectors. In multifamily, Cortland Partners is set to buy 19 apartment communities for about $1.6 billion as one real estate trust exits the market. In retail, a venture just paid roughly $332 million for a Los Angeles mega-mall with plans to reinvent the aging property. All told, these deals show that well-capitalized players still have appetite for CRE, especially in segments viewed as long-term winners – from rental housing to modern logistics facilities. Sellers have adjusted to the new pricing reality: deals now reflect higher interest rates, and some owners are even taking losses to offload properties. But the fact that buyers are writing big checks in this environment is a vote of confidence in the assets they’re targeting. If the Fed’s rate cut comes through, it could give deal-making a boost by making financing slightly cheaper. In short, the investment market isn’t frozen – it’s selective but active wherever the fundamentals look strong.

Our final story is the growing distress in commercial real estate loans. New data shows the share of commercial mortgages in trouble has climbed to its highest level in over a decade – roughly 12% of loans in CMBS are now delinquent or in default. The main culprit is the “maturity wall”: a wave of loans from the last boom coming due now, just as interest rates have skyrocketed. Many owners can’t refinance their old low-rate debt at today’s much higher rates, and a significant number are defaulting instead. It’s not just office towers feeling the pain – some apartment complexes and shopping centers have gone delinquent after failing to replace maturing mortgages. Lenders are ramping up foreclosures and workouts as more borrowers decide to give up properties. For property owners, it’s a warning sign that values – especially for older or less-competitive buildings – are under serious pressure. But for investors with cash, this shakeout could open the door to buy solid assets at distressed prices. The key is separating the gems from the junk: only the stronger properties will attract buyers and new financing in these fire sales. The bottom line: managing debt is now the name of the game, and those with strong balance sheets and patience may turn this turmoil into opportunity.

That’s all for now. We’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael – until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, September 11, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: CRE deal volume hits a 2025 peak led by multifamily; a $1 billion bet on distressed properties; and the Fed finally signals an interest rate cut ahead.

First up, commercial real estate deal activity is showing signs of life. July saw a 10% jump in transaction volume over June – the strongest month of the year so far, according to LightBox’s nationwide tracker. Mid-sized deals in the $50–$100 million range surged, with 72 sales recorded (up from 58 the month prior) as investors pivoted toward more manageable assets. Multifamily led the charge, accounting for the bulk of those mid-market deals and topping the list of big-ticket sales as well. Even hotels showed renewed life with a handful of trades after a quiet June.

However, not every sector is sharing in the rebound. Office properties remained the outlier, barely registering a handful of significant deals – a clear sign of continued caution around that segment. Still, the overall uptick in deal-making suggests that plenty of buyers and sellers are finding ways to transact despite higher financing costs. Industry analysts note that ample capital is hunting for stable cash flow, which is why apartments and industrial assets are drawing most of the attention. There are headwinds looming – a softening jobs picture, volatile Treasury yields, and a tick up in inflation could all temper investor confidence heading into the fall – but for now, deals are getting done. It seems some investors aren’t waiting on the Fed to blink; they’re adjusting to the new normal and chasing opportunities where they see long-term demand.

Meanwhile, big players are gearing up for a wave of distress. Cottonwood Group, a Los Angeles investment firm, just closed a $1 billion fund focused on distressed commercial real estate. That’s double the $500 million they initially targeted, reflecting strong investor appetite to pounce on troubled assets. About $300 million is already deployed, mainly through loans that give Cottonwood the option to take control of properties if borrowers default. The strategy is clear: with an estimated $2 trillion in commercial mortgages set to mature by 2027, many property owners will struggle to refinance in today’s high-rate environment. This fund sees a once-in-a-decade chance to scoop up properties on the cheap if owners can’t cover their loans.

And it’s not just specialty funds moving in – traditional lenders are starting to offload risk as well. Just this week, an Indiana-based bank agreed to sell nearly $870 million of commercial real estate loans to Blackstone at roughly 95 cents on the dollar. In effect, the bank is trimming its exposure to long-term CRE debt, taking a small haircut now to shore up capital. For Blackstone’s debt arm, it’s an opportunity to buy a large portfolio of performing loans at a discount. This follows a broader trend of private equity stepping in where banks fear to tread: over the last two years Blackstone has acquired tens of billions in real estate loans from banks looking to reduce risk. The big picture? Stress is building in parts of the market – especially in office and other sectors under pressure – but there’s a war chest of opportunistic capital assembling to pick those bones clean. For investors, the message is mixed: distress is becoming very real, but well-funded players stand ready to snap up the bargains, which ultimately could help put a floor under falling property values.

Finally, let’s turn to the macro scene, where all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. It’s looking more likely that the Fed will cut interest rates next week – the first rate reduction of the year. A Reuters poll of economists released this morning shows an overwhelming consensus that a quarter-point cut is effectively a done deal at the Fed’s September meeting. What’s changed? In short, the job market is finally showing some cracks. August’s employment report came in weak, and the Labor Department also revealed that job growth was significantly lower over the past year than previously thought. That labor market softness is overshadowing inflation concerns for the moment.

Now, inflation did tick up slightly in August – the Consumer Price Index rose about 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.7% in July – but that level isn’t ringing alarm bells like it was a year ago. With price growth relatively contained and the economy clearly downshifting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and company have been hinting that some modest easing is in order. Markets have taken the hint: investors are fully pricing in a rate cut, which would bring the Fed’s benchmark down to roughly a 4.0%–4.25% range. Many on Wall Street even expect another cut after that by year-end if current trends continue. For the real estate world, this is a welcome sign. Higher interest rates have been the number one headache for CRE deals and valuations this past year. Even a small cut should provide a bit of relief – lowering borrowing costs at the margin and, perhaps more importantly, boosting investor sentiment that the worst is behind us. That said, no one is expecting a return to rock-bottom rates anytime soon. The Fed is likely to telegraph caution, emphasizing that it’s not taking its eye off inflation. In other words, think of this as the start of a long, gradual exhale for the market – a step toward more normal financing conditions, but one taken carefully and incrementally. CRE investors will take it. Any signal of monetary relief, however slight, could help stabilize cap rates and get more buyers off the sidelines as we head into the end of the year.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, September 10, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: a billion-dollar push into affordable housing, a massive industrial real estate deal, and new warnings about a commercial refinancing crunch.

Our first story: investors are making a big bet on affordable housing. Manulife Investment Management and Los Angeles-based TruAmerica Multifamily have launched a joint venture committing $1 billion to preserve affordable apartment communities. The partnership, named Anchor Point Residential, is kicking off by acquiring a portfolio of 6,000 income-restricted units across 51 properties in California, Texas and Washington. These are Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) projects, many at risk of losing their affordability as their compliance periods end. By taking over the general partner stakes, the JV will keep rents affordable while aiming for steady returns. And it’s timely – hundreds of thousands of older affordable units nationwide are nearing the end of their mandated rent restrictions in the next few years. Why it matters: demand for affordable housing far outstrips supply. Big institutional capital stepping in signals confidence that subsidized housing can be both a social good and a solid investment. With market-rate apartment deals slowing, investors are finding opportunity in segments backed by government incentives and reliable occupancy.

Next up, a blockbuster industrial sale shows where investor appetite remains strong. New Mountain Capital just closed on a $640 million acquisition of a net-lease portfolio spanning 53 industrial and manufacturing properties. It’s the largest deal to date for New Mountain’s net-lease strategy. The seller wasn’t named, but the hefty price tag suggests high conviction in the industrial sector. New Mountain deployed a dedicated fund to seize this opportunity, even as higher interest rates have cooled some deals. Big picture: while office buildings struggle, well-leased industrial facilities continue to attract major capital. Investors with dry powder are cherry-picking portfolios that offer reliable cash flow from long-term tenants. This bet assumes that e-commerce and manufacturing demand will keep warehouses and factories resilient despite rising financing costs.

Our third story is more cautionary: commercial real estate faces a looming debt refinancing wall, and banks are feeling the pressure. A new Moody’s report warns that roughly 63% of U.S. bank CRE loans mature by the end of 2025 – an amount nearly equal to those banks’ total common equity. Refinancing that much debt is a high-wire act. With interest rates still elevated, many property owners can’t replace their loans without sharply higher costs or lower valuations. Lenders are responding by granting short-term extensions – often six to twelve months – hoping that rates fall next year. For investors, it’s a double-edged sword. Fewer immediate loan defaults mean less forced selling right now, but it sets up a high-stakes test late next year. If borrowing costs stay high and fundamentals don’t improve, more owners could default once those extensions expire. Office properties are particularly vulnerable, with national office vacancies around 20% today versus roughly 15% pre-pandemic. Moody’s has even placed several regional banks on watch due to heavy CRE exposure. The takeaway: the lending environment is likely to stay tight. Potential relief, like Federal Reserve rate cuts, is on the horizon but uncertain. Until borrowing costs come down, refinancing will remain challenging, and investors may demand better pricing to compensate for added risk.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, September 9, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: the Fed signals easier money even with inflation running hot, a big Manhattan office tower trade hints at life in that sector, and a massive industrial park opening in Houston.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its meeting next week, even though inflation is still about 3% – well above the 2% target. It’s highly unusual to see the Fed easing with inflation this high, hinting that 3% might be the new 2% going forward. For commercial real estate, this potential pivot cuts both ways. On one hand, lower rates would ease financing costs and could finally thaw the deal-making freeze caused by expensive debt. In fact, some investors are already tiptoeing back in anticipation – apartment sales have been picking up in certain markets as buyers bet on cheaper mortgages ahead. On the other hand, if the Fed is blinking on inflation, we may have to live with higher baseline inflation. That could boost property incomes over time, but it also means expenses and cap rates might stay elevated longer than owners would like.

In New York City, a major office deal is testing the waters of the beleaguered office market. Vornado Realty Trust just paid $218 million for a 36-story office tower at 623 Fifth Avenue – a 100-year-old high-rise next to Rockefeller Center, about 75% leased. Vornado plans to reposition it into a boutique, luxury office property. This sale is noteworthy because Manhattan office investment has been sluggish, but there are signs of life. Office sales volume in the city this year is roughly double what it was last year, suggesting buyers like Vornado are stepping in as prices adjust. They’re betting that well-located, quality buildings will still draw tenants despite the remote work era. Meanwhile, not every property is faring so well – in Times Square, a massive retail space just sold out of foreclosure for barely a tenth of what its previous owner paid, underscoring how distressed some assets remain. The takeaway: top-tier locations and assets are getting investor attention again, while weaker, outdated properties continue to struggle.

And in the industrial sector, one of the biggest new logistics developments in the country just opened in Texas – highlighting the continued strength of industrial real estate. A joint venture of Trammell Crow Company and Japan’s Daiwa House has delivered the 1.4 million-square-foot Blue Ridge Commerce Center industrial park in Houston. That’s five brand-new warehouses (aiming for LEED certification) coming online just a year after breaking ground. For Daiwa House, a newcomer to U.S. industrial, jumping into Houston shows how eager global investors are to ride the warehouse boom. And Houston is a good place to do it: the region is a distribution powerhouse with a busy port, and despite tens of millions of square feet under construction, tenant demand has kept vacancy below the national average. Big leases are still getting signed almost as fast as new buildings open. Even with higher interest rates, developers and lenders are moving forward on projects like this because the fundamentals are so strong – high occupancy, steady rent growth, and solid tenant demand. In 2025, industrial continues to be the standout performer in CRE, attracting major capital while other sectors lag.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, September 8, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: Fed rate cut hopes grow as new data show the economy cooling; Manhattan office deals heat up amid a surprising leasing rebound; and apartment rents flatten out while retail faces new headwinds.

Our first story is the macro picture. Investors are betting the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates soon. A weaker-than-expected jobs report on Friday fueled hopes that the Fed will ease policy as the economy cools. Any rate relief would be welcome for commercial real estate, where high borrowing costs have sidelined many deals. Even a small Fed pivot could thaw lending and boost investor confidence.

Turning to office real estate – New York City is seeing an unexpected surge in office building sales alongside a rebound in leasing. In recent weeks, several major Midtown Manhattan office properties have changed hands at steep discounts. One 47-story tower sold for about $571 million, and another traded at nearly 60% below its last sale price, underscoring how far values fell. Why are buyers jumping in now? Because tenants are finally returning. Manhattan office leasing in August was roughly 40% higher than a year ago, thanks to big deals like Deloitte signing on for 800,000 square feet at Hudson Yards. With occupancy on the rise, investors are snapping up quality buildings at today’s depressed prices. Manhattan office sales volume has more than doubled from last year as bargain hunters sense the sector may have hit bottom.

Next up: the multifamily sector. After years of rapid rent growth, apartment rents have essentially flattened nationwide – even dipping slightly in some areas. New data show average U.S. rents in August were about 0.2% lower than a year ago, the first annual decline since 2021. Occupancies remain solid around 95%, but a wave of new construction in many Sun Belt cities is finally giving renters more options and forcing landlords to cut deals. Some of last year’s hottest markets are now flat or seeing modest rent drops, while a few regions still post small gains. The multifamily boom is clearly cooling off. Rental demand remains steady – many would-be homebuyers are stuck renting – but the era of across-the-board rent hikes has ended. Owners and investors are adjusting expectations now that supply is catching up with demand.

Finally, two consumer-linked sectors are diverging: retail and industrial real estate. Retail landlords are facing headwinds. In the first half of 2025, about 15 million more square feet of retail space closed than opened – the first time that’s happened outside the pandemic – pushing retail vacancy up to roughly 5% nationwide (much higher in struggling malls). Consumers are pulling back and retailers burdened by rising costs have been closing some stores. Yet prime retail locations are still commanding top rents.

Meanwhile, industrial properties remain a bright spot. Roughly $33 billion in warehouses and logistics centers changed hands in the first half, up about 15% year-over-year, as e-commerce and supply chain shifts keep demand resilient. Industrial vacancies have edged up to around 5% with the construction boom, and rent growth has cooled to a more normal pace. But even after this cooldown, warehouse space is still relatively tight, and investors remain bullish on long-term logistics needs. Retail real estate is feeling some pain, while the industrial sector is still going strong.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: shipping container logistics are getting a second life in industrial real estate; a historic landmark transforms into apartments in Boston; and private equity’s rising dominance in suburban single-family rentals.

First up, industrial innovation. With warehousing still critical but land shrinking, investors are embracing modular solutions. This week, a major logistics firm broke ground on a 500,000-square-foot warehouse near the Port of Savannah built almost entirely with repurposed shipping containers. It’s a pilot project, but expected to slash construction time by 30% and costs by nearly 25%. In the face of rising land costs and supply chain volatility, developers say modular builds like this could mark the next evolution in warehouse development—especially for light manufacturing or last-mile distribution. For CRE investors, this means an opportunity to deploy quicker, more capital-efficient projects where long timelines previously made deals too tight.

Moving to Boston, a historic switch-up is reshaping urban real estate. The former Mechanics Hall—an iconic 19th-century office building in the Financial District—is being converted into 150 luxury apartments with ground-floor retail. Local officials approved the adaptive reuse plan after developers pledged to preserve the façade and historical interior features. The trend of turning old offices into housing is accelerating in high-cost cities, and this is a standout example: city planners say this project could set a precedent for other underused office buildings downtown. Landlords looking to bail out of dwindling commercial demand now have a tangible blueprint: preserve architectural legacy, add residential revenue, and reinvigorate urban cores.

And now a look at suburban housing trends: investors are purchasing an increasing share of single-family homes. Analytics firm Cotality reported that nearly one-third—32%—of U.S. home sales in the first half of 2025 were made by investors. Even more eye-opening, “mega investors” (those owning 1,000+ homes) now account for a growing slice of this figure. Cities like Atlanta, Memphis, and Los Angeles top the list of hot zones. Many of these investors are targeting rentals, drawn by high home prices and limited supply deterring first-time buyers. That matters widely for CRE investors: single-family rentals are becoming a full-blown institutional asset class. Housing affordability is a challenge for many, and investor-dominated ownership in key markets could reshape how housing supply evolves. Policymakers are just beginning to assess the implications.

We’ll wrap with a macro note on capital markets. Private equity dry powder continues to flood into real estate, with $350 billion ready to deploy globally—led by giants like Blackstone, which holds around $18 billion earmarked for CRE deals. Executives at today’s BofA Global Real Estate Conference are urging investors to deploy capital before further rate cuts ramp yields and disrupt current price levels. Today’s real estate landscape favors buyers with liquidity and patience, and the tidal wave of ready-to-invest capital is only increasing competition for high-quality assets.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, September 3, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: a Fed official urges interest rate cuts as the job market cools, New York’s biggest office landlord makes a $160 million bet on Midtown, and new multifamily projects forge ahead from California to Florida.

First, the macro outlook – We may be on the cusp of a Federal Reserve pivot. Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated this morning that the central bank should start cutting interest rates at its next meeting, citing clear signs of a weakening labor market. Job openings and private hiring have been slowing, giving the Fed cover to ease up after a long stretch of rate hikes. Waller even suggested we could see multiple rate cuts over the next few months if economic data cooperates. For commercial real estate investors, this is a big deal: a drop in interest rates would finally start relieving pressure on financing costs and cap rates. Now, it’s not all smooth sailing yet – long-term Treasury yields briefly brushed 5% this week for the first time in years, reflecting lingering inflation and hefty government borrowing. Elevated bond yields mean mortgage rates and debt costs are still high for now, and that’s keeping some deals on ice. But the expectation of Fed rate relief soon has many in CRE thinking the worst of the rate shock is behind us. In fact, fresh data shows commercial property prices ticked up in July for the first time in five months. After a prolonged slump, an index of large CRE sales rose about 1%, suggesting asset values might be finding a floor as big institutional buyers tiptoe back into the market. Deal volume is showing signs of life again – July’s investment sales were up year-over-year, led by institutional-grade trades. Even the industrial sector – which had cooled off after the pandemic warehouse boom – is seeing renewed investor appetite. Over $33 billion in industrial properties changed hands in the first half of 2025, a double-digit jump from last year, despite higher vacancies in some logistics markets. The takeaway: confidence is creeping back. With capital costs potentially headed down and investors sensing opportunity, the back half of 2025 could see momentum building across CRE markets.

Next, let’s turn to office real estate, New York City – where one of the biggest landlords is doubling down on a bold redevelopment play. SL Green Realty, Manhattan’s largest office owner, just announced a deal to acquire two historic Midtown buildings for $160 million. These century-old properties on Madison Avenue, near Grand Central Terminal, will be the site of a brand-new 800,000-square-foot office tower that SL Green plans to develop. It’s a noteworthy move: in a time when the office sector is under pressure from remote work, SL Green is essentially saying high-quality, well-located office space still has a future. They’re aiming to replace aging, smaller-floorplate buildings with a modern skyscraper offering the kind of big, column-free floor plates and transit access today’s top tenants demand. And recent trends back them up to an extent – Manhattan’s office vacancy rate has actually improved over the past year, now hovering around 15%, which is significantly healthier than the national average near 19%. In trophy locations, we’ve seen leasing hold up and even rent rates staying above pre-pandemic averages, whereas older, less convenient offices struggle. By investing now, SL Green seems to be betting that flight-to-quality will continue – that companies will consolidate into newer, more efficient towers to entice employees back and improve productivity. It’s a long-term bet, as the new tower won’t deliver for several years, but it demonstrates confidence in New York’s status as a business hub. Not every office landlord can pull off a project like this, but SL Green lining up a major redevelopment signals that there are still believers in the future of the office – at least for prime assets. It’s also worth noting that we continue to see buyers for big-city office properties when the price is right. Just this quarter, a partnership including Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is expected to close on a $570 million acquisition of another Manhattan office tower. So while the office sector’s pain is real, there are pockets of resilience, and savvy investors are positioning for an eventual rebound in the strongest urban markets.

And finally, in multifamily and housing – new development is pressing forward, illustrating where investors see enduring demand. On the West Coast, retail REIT Kimco Realty has teamed up with developer Bozzuto to break ground on a 214-unit apartment project just south of San Francisco. This mixed-use community, called The Chester at Westlake, is rising on the site of a shopping center in Daly City that Kimco owns. It’s slated to open in 2027 and will include not only apartments but also ground-floor shops and extensive amenities like courtyards, co-working spaces, and a rooftop lounge. The project underscores a trend we’re seeing with retail landlords repurposing or intensifying their properties by adding housing. Kimco is one of the country’s largest shopping center owners, and by bringing in apartments, they’re aiming to create a built-in customer base for the retail and a vibrant 24/7 environment. For investors, it’s a way to diversify income streams and unlock value from well-located retail real estate by adding desperately needed housing in supply-constrained markets like the Bay Area. Moving to the East Coast, student housing continues to be a standout performer in real estate, and we’ve got a colossal new project on the way in Florida. Landmark Properties – a major player in student housing development – just announced plans for an 807-bed student apartment community near the University of South Florida in Tampa. They’ve acquired a 4-acre site by campus and will be building a six-story residential complex called “The Mark Tampa,” scheduled to be ready for the 2027–2028 school year. This development will be amenity-rich too, featuring a rooftop pool, fitness centers, study lounges, and even ground-floor retail space. It’s essentially a custom-built village for college students. The price tag will be significant (Landmark hasn’t disclosed it yet), but the project is backed by institutional partners and speaks to the strong confidence in the student housing sector. Even as parts of the conventional multifamily market cool off with higher vacancies in some cities, student housing near big universities remains in high demand – often enjoying 95%+ occupancy and rent growth – because enrollment keeps climbing and on-campus dorm supply is limited. Investors have taken notice, pouring capital into student projects which are seen as more recession-resistant. In this Tampa case, the developer already has several successful properties at USF, so they’re expanding on a market they know. For the local community, hundreds of new beds should help alleviate a housing pinch for students. And for the broader CRE market, it’s another example that capital is available for the right projects. Whether it’s apartments on top of a shopping center or high-end student housing by a growing university, lenders and equity partners are selectively green-lighting developments that align with long-term demographic needs. These groundbreakings show that despite higher interest rates and construction costs, certain segments like multifamily remain bullish – especially in locations with strong job and population growth or unique demand drivers.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael — Until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, It is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: investors are ramping up industrial property deals; one of the year’s biggest apartment sales closes even as an office skyscraper falls into distress; and why the Fed may finally be ready to cut interest rates.

Industrial real estate is showing renewed momentum in 2025. Investors poured over $33 billion into U.S. industrial property deals in the first half of the year — about 15% more than a year ago — putting the sector on pace to surpass 2024’s sales volume. This is despite some headwinds: nationwide industrial vacancy has roughly doubled since mid-2022 as a wave of new warehouses hit the market, and rent growth has downshifted to the low single digits. Even so, demand drivers like e-commerce and manufacturing reshoring are keeping investors optimistic. Big players such as Blackstone are still betting on logistics hubs in key regions, confident that the need for modern distribution space will persist through economic ups and downs.

Moving to multifamily, one of the largest apartment deals of the year just closed in San Jose. Greystar sold the Park Kiely apartment complex — a sprawling 948-unit community — for $370 million. That price tag makes it the biggest multifamily sale in Silicon Valley since 2018, and likely the largest single-asset apartment transaction in the U.S. so far this year. What’s remarkable is how the buyers, a partnership including Standard Communities and a nonprofit group, structured the deal. They secured a substantial Freddie Mac loan and a special California tax exemption by committing to keep most of the units affordable for the long term. In an era of high interest rates, this kind of creative financing and public-private approach helped make a pricey deal pencil out while preserving much-needed affordable housing.

Meanwhile, the office sector continues to face serious challenges. In downtown Los Angeles, a 42-story skyscraper known as One California Plaza just went into receivership after its owners defaulted on a $300 million loan. Rising Realty and DigitalBridge bought this tower for $465 million in 2017, but today it’s reportedly valued at only about $121 million – a roughly 75% collapse in value. With downtown L.A. office vacancies soaring above 30%, even some trophy buildings are succumbing to distress. Major landlords like Brookfield have already walked away from several towers there. Across many cities, remote work and high borrowing costs are keeping office demand weak and refinancing difficult. Some opportunistic investors are hunting for bargains in this turmoil, but for many landlords, handing the keys back to lenders is becoming the grim trend.

On the economic front, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve and interest rates. Markets are increasingly convinced that the Fed will cut rates at its meeting later this month. Futures trading now implies better than an 80% chance of a quarter-point reduction. Even a usually hawkish Fed official, Governor Christopher Waller, said last week “let’s get on with it,” openly urging a September cut. Inflation has cooled near the Fed’s 2% target, and July’s data showed price pressures stabilizing while consumer spending stayed resilient. Meanwhile, the labor market is gradually loosening. With both inflation and employment trends moving in the right direction, the stage is set for the Fed to finally ease off the brakes. For real estate investors, a rate cut can’t come soon enough — borrowing costs remain historically high, and any relief could start to improve deal financing and property values over time.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael — until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, September 1, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: a $600 million bet on senior housing, office distress deepens with a fire sale in Charlotte, and industrial real estate hits a speed bump amid economic crosswinds.

First up, a blockbuster deal in the senior housing space. Harrison Street – a major real estate investment firm – has sold a portfolio of five senior living communities in New York for over $600 million. Multiple outlets report the buyer is Ventas, one of the country’s largest senior housing REITs. It’s a huge vote of confidence in the senior living sector: even in a cautious market, big money is flowing into properties that cater to America’s aging population. Harrison Street developed these communities in recent years and is now cashing out at an opportune moment. And for Ventas, it’s a bold expansion play, betting that demand and rents in senior housing will keep climbing.

Meanwhile, the office sector’s struggles are only deepening – this time evidenced by a steeply discounted skyscraper sale in Charlotte, North Carolina. A 27-story Uptown office tower called Charlotte Plaza just sold for about $70 million, reportedly less than half of what it went for a few years ago. Why the fire sale? The building was only around 30% leased – a reflection of how remote work and high vacancies have hammered office values. The seller was under distress, and an investor group swooped in looking for a bargain. This isn’t an isolated case: nationally, office vacancies are hovering at record highs above 20%, and many landlords can’t refinance their debts as interest rates rise. That’s leading to more defaults and forced sales. For opportunistic buyers with cash, it’s open season to pick up office buildings at cents on the dollar. But turning them around will be a long game, dependent on eventually filling all that empty space.

Now to the industrial side – warehouses and logistics facilities have been the hottest properties in recent years, but they’ve finally hit a speed bump. New research shows that industrial space absorption turned negative last quarter for the first time since 2010. After years of nonstop growth, the sector took a slight step back as economic uncertainty and higher borrowing costs caused some tenants to tap the brakes on expansions. The good news: experts expect this cooldown to be temporary. Demand is projected to start bouncing back next year as companies adjust their supply chains. In fact, industry forecasts call for over 100 million square feet of industrial space to be absorbed in 2026 – a healthy rebound if it materializes.

On the broader economy, growth has been resilient but inflation is still running a bit too warm for the Federal Reserve’s liking. Fresh data out Friday showed consumer spending is hanging strong and core inflation is about 2.9% year-over-year – still above the Fed’s 2% target. Resilient spending is a lifeline for retail real estate too: nearly 6,000 stores have closed across the U.S. so far this year, while thousands of new shops are opening in segments like grocery, discount retail and dining. With the economy chugging along and prices not yet tamed, the Fed is inclined to keep interest rates elevated. That means borrowing money remains expensive for real estate investors across the board. Everyone will be watching the upcoming jobs report and the Fed’s next meeting for any hint of a pivot or rate relief.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!