Author: Edward Brawer

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, December 2, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: an overview of mortgage rates, insurance costs, and lending conditions shaping commercial real estate; the latest national property news and capital markets updates; a check-in on lending trends, deal activity, and distress signals; and a regional spotlight on San Francisco’s beleaguered office market.

Mortgage, Insurance & Lending Conditions: We begin with the financing environment. Interest rates are finally ticking down after the Fed’s aggressive hikes over the past few years. In fact, the Federal Reserve has cut rates twice since September, bringing short-term borrowing costs to their lowest point in three years. Still, “low” is relative – the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4%, and many commercial mortgage rates are ranging from the mid-5% for the most creditworthy deals to the low double-digits for riskier loans. Refinancing remains a hurdle for many property owners who locked in loans when rates were near zero. The good news is that banks appear slightly more open to lending than they were a year ago – by mid-2025 far fewer banks were tightening their credit standards compared to the height of the 2023 credit crunch. Meanwhile, the property insurance market has stabilized after the turmoil of 2023-24. Insurers have brought more capacity for standard commercial properties, and premium increases have cooled. Well-managed buildings with solid risk controls are seeing flat or even slightly lower insurance renewals this quarter. However, in disaster-prone areas – think coastal hurricane zones or wildfire regions – insurance is still costly and harder to secure, with carriers demanding higher deductibles. All in all, the cost of debt and insurance is still high by historical standards, but the pressure is easing, offering a bit of relief to the commercial real estate industry as we head into year-end.

National Market News & Capital Markets: Now let’s turn to the broader commercial real estate market. After a prolonged slump, there are signs of life. U.S. commercial property prices have been inching up this fall, suggesting the market may be finding a floor. In October, nationwide CRE price indices rose for the fifth month in a row – modest gains, but a welcome trend after years of decline in values. Industry analysts point to lower interest rates as a key factor: cheaper financing is luring some buyers back and helping deals pencil out. We’ve seen a notable uptick in sales activity as well. Commercial transaction volume over the past year is up by double digits, and more properties are trading hands as sellers adjust to the new pricing reality. Investors who sat on the sidelines are slowly re-emerging now that prices are more realistic and appear to be stabilizing. That said, the recovery is uneven. The strongest momentum is in high-quality “investment-grade” assets – the big, prime properties in major markets – which are fetching solid interest. In fact, those trophy assets have led the rebound with values even ticking slightly above last year’s levels on average, after several years of declines. On the other hand, some sectors are still under pressure: for example, office and multifamily values remain well below their 2022 peaks in many areas. So while the worst may be behind us, commercial real estate’s comeback is gradual and varies by property type. The capital markets are cautiously optimistic; real estate funds have raised significant “dry powder” this year, especially in private credit strategies, anticipating that opportunities in distressed debt and value-add deals will grow. If the Fed follows through with another rate cut later this month as many expect, it could further boost investor confidence and transactional activity going into 2026.

Lending Climate, Deal Activity & Distress Signals: How are current lending conditions and market stress shaping deals? Let’s dig in. With interest rates still relatively high, obtaining financing for new acquisitions or developments isn’t easy – but it’s getting a touch better. A year ago, banks and traditional lenders pulled back hard, but now we hear that only a small minority of banks are still tightening their lending standards. Some are even cautiously starting to compete for well-qualified borrowers again, especially for industrial, multifamily, and other favored sectors. Nevertheless, lending terms remain conservative: expect lower leverage and more scrutiny on projects’ cash flows. Many borrowers are turning to alternative lenders – private equity debt funds, insurance companies, and other non-bank sources – to fill the gap, even if it means paying a higher rate. Deal flow is still below the boom years, but improving. Brokers report that bid-ask spreads between buyers and sellers have narrowed as sellers accept the new normal on pricing. We’re also seeing creative deal structures, like seller financing or earn-outs, to bridge valuation gaps in this environment. As for distress signals, the office sector continues to flash red in some markets. Elevated vacancy rates and maturing debt are a dangerous combination. Roughly $950 billion in commercial mortgages are coming due in 2025 – that’s about 20% of all outstanding CRE debt – and a disproportionate chunk of that is tied to office buildings. Many of those loans were extended from last year, and now owners face a moment of truth: refinance at today’s higher rates, restructure the debt, or hand back the keys. We’ve already seen several high-profile office landlords default or negotiate with lenders this year, especially on older downtown buildings that are struggling to retain tenants. At the same time, not all the news is grim. In retail and hospitality real estate, there’s a genuine recovery underway – consumers are out shopping and traveling again, lifting revenues for shopping centers, hotels, and restaurants. Even some hard-hit offices are finding new life through conversions or amenities that lure workers back. Overall, the industry is watching for any tipping point: so far, defaults and delinquencies have risen from their post-pandemic lows but are nowhere near the crisis levels of 2008. The hope is that gradually easing interest costs and steady economic growth will prevent a broader wave of distress, though challenges persist in certain corners of the market.

Regional Spotlight – San Francisco: Finally, let’s shine our regional spotlight on one of the most talked-about commercial real estate markets in the country: San Francisco. The Bay Area’s office sector has been a bellwether of post-pandemic distress, and it remains the most extreme example of the challenges facing urban offices. Downtown San Francisco is dealing with record-high office vacancies – around a third of all office space sits empty, a far cry from its tech-boom heyday. This glut of vacant space, combined with years of remote work and a slow return-to-office, has hammered property values. Just to illustrate: one 16-story office building in the city’s Mid-Market neighborhood sold earlier last year for only $6.5 million after previously trading for $62 million in 2016. That’s almost a 90% collapse in value, a shocking figure that underscores the “great reset” happening in San Francisco real estate. In fact, it’s become common to see downtown buildings selling at discounts of 50% or more from their pre-pandemic valuations. This is painful for existing owners and their lenders, but it’s attracting a new breed of bargain hunters. Opportunistic investors are circling, betting that the city’s fortunes will eventually rebound. We’ve started to see some big bets: for example, a pair of prominent office towers (Market Center) sold earlier this year for about $177 million – the largest San Francisco office deal in three years – signaling that buyers will step in at the right price. Still, challenges abound. High-rise landlords are contending with reduced tenant demand and much higher insurance and security costs, not to mention a downtown that’s trying to recover its vibrancy. Local officials are pushing for conversions of older offices into housing and labs, and some tech companies are slowly expanding their footprints again, giving a glimmer of hope. But realistically, San Francisco’s road to recovery will be long. The situation there serves as a cautionary tale for other cities: it highlights how shifts in work patterns and economic shocks can profoundly shake real estate. On a brighter note, not every region is struggling – many Sun Belt markets and even New York City’s prime offices are faring better – but in this spotlight, San Francisco remains the market to watch if you want to understand the headwinds facing urban commercial real estate.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, December 1, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: a look at the current mortgage, insurance, and lending rate conditions shaping commercial real estate; the latest national CRE news and capital markets updates; insights on lending conditions, deal activity, and signs of distress or recovery; and a regional spotlight on the Midwest. Let’s dive in.

Mortgage, Insurance, and Lending Rates Overview: We start with the financing environment. Interest rates have finally eased a bit compared to a year ago. The Federal Reserve’s late-October rate cut brought the federal funds target down to about 3.75-4.00%. As a result, benchmark lending rates like Treasury yields and SOFR are near their lows for the year. That’s welcome news for anyone looking to refinance or take out a new commercial mortgage – loans are still pricey, but at least a little cheaper than they were last winter. Mortgage rates for top-tier properties are generally down from their peak, though still higher than the ultra-low levels of 2021. On the insurance side, commercial property owners continue to wrestle with high premiums. Over the past few years, insurance costs surged due to inflation and a string of natural disasters. In 2025 we’ve seen the pace of those increases slow, but premiums remain way up from five years ago. In hurricane- and wildfire-prone regions, some insurers have even pulled back, forcing investors to budget carefully for coverage. All of this means higher operating costs and tighter lender underwriting. Lenders today are scrutinizing deals with an eye on those bigger insurance bills and debt payments. Credit standards are stricter than before, so borrowers need solid income streams and good equity to secure financing. The upside? Competition among lenders is increasing again – we’re seeing banks, life insurers, and debt funds all eager to lend on quality deals. They’re trimming loan spreads to win business, which helps offset the still-elevated base rates. So, financing is available, but the days of easy money are over; it takes a strong proposal to land the best terms now.

Top National News and Capital Markets Updates: Now turning to what’s happening across the commercial real estate market nationally. The overall picture is one of cautious improvement. U.S. commercial property sales are rebounding – in fact, transaction volume through the first three quarters of 2025 is about 18% higher than the same period in 2024. This uptick suggests that buyers and sellers are finally coming closer on pricing, and that some of the uncertainty over interest rates is lifting. With year-end approaching, there’s usually a rush to close deals, and that momentum seems to be carrying through this fourth quarter. Capital markets are showing more life: beyond bank loans, a wave of private real estate funds have been raising capital, especially for debt strategies. Just in the last two months, billions of dollars flowed into new real estate credit funds. That’s a strong signal that investors see opportunity – they’re gearing up to lend or snap up debt on commercial properties. More capital availability is a positive sign for keeping the market liquid.

Sector by sector, the news is mixed but mostly upbeat. Industrial real estate remains the golden child of CRE – demand for warehouses and logistics space is consistently robust thanks to e-commerce and supply chain modernization. Multifamily (apartments) has cooled from the frenzy of a couple years ago, but is stabilizing; rents aren’t growing at double-digit rates anymore, yet occupancy is solid in most cities and new supply is getting absorbed with only mild growing pains. The surprise story of late 2025 is retail real estate. Retail was once considered the problem child due to online shopping, but it’s enjoying a renaissance this year. In fact, the third quarter saw retail property sales jump over 40% from a year prior – the strongest quarter for retail in three years. Investors have renewed confidence in well-located shopping centers and open-air retail. Consumer spending has held up, and retailers who survived the pandemic are expanding again. Markets in the Sunbelt – places like Dallas, Houston, and Phoenix, and Orlando – led the nation in retail leasing and sales activity, showing that population growth and housing migration to those areas are fueling demand for stores. Even parts of the Northeast saw bright spots (Northern New Jersey, for example, logged gains in retail occupancy), whereas some West Coast markets are lagging a bit in retail recovery. Overall, retail rents and values are inching up, and because borrowing costs have eased slightly, the math for buyers is improving. Cap rates for retail properties have compressed a touch as financing gets a tad cheaper, meaning buyers are willing to pay more now than they were a year ago. It’s a remarkable turnaround for retail and one of the feel-good stories as we wrap up the year.

What about the office sector? Offices are still the most challenging segment of commercial real estate, no doubt. High vacancy rates persist in many downtowns, and companies continue to re-evaluate their space needs in this new hybrid-work era. However, even here we have some news: big office transactions are happening again, albeit selectively. Last quarter, over 60 office buildings priced above $50 million changed hands across the U.S. – that’s roughly 50% more large office deals than we saw in the same quarter the year before. Now, to put it in perspective, office investment is still only running at perhaps a quarter of its pre-pandemic volume, so we’re coming off a very low base. But the fact that firms like Blackstone and other opportunistic investors are buying office towers at deep discounts suggests that they smell long-term value. These buyers have strong stomachs and cash reserves, and they’re targeting high-quality buildings in prime locations – essentially betting that today’s bargain prices will pay off down the road. This uptick in office deal activity is noteworthy: it could mean we’re at or near the bottom for office valuations, and that early movers are testing the waters. We’ll see if this trend picks up into 2026. For now, office remains a special situation – lots of distress out there – but at least some capital is willing to take the risk, which is more than we could say a year ago.

In capital markets generally, conditions are better than they’ve been in recent memory. After the Fed’s actions, we’ve seen the 5- and 10-year Treasury yields hold near their lows for the year, which stabilizes long-term financing costs. Meanwhile, lending spreads – the extra yield lenders require above those benchmark rates – have tightened to some of the lowest levels in the past three years. In plain English, lenders aren’t charging as much of a premium now because there’s more competition and perhaps a sense that the worst economic risks have passed. All of these factors – slightly lower rates, tighter spreads, and ample investor capital – bode well for the deals getting done at the end of this year. The typical December deal rush is on, and it should help boost the final 2025 investment tally.

Lending Conditions, Deal Activity, and Distress Signals: Let’s talk about how lending and distress are shaping up. We know the cost of debt is high relative to a few years back, and banks have been careful, but there’s a real resilience in the lending market. Every lender – banks, insurance companies, CMBS shops, and private debt funds – has been “open for business” in some form this year, especially for safer asset types. Many deals that make it to the closing table today involve creative financing or additional equity to satisfy lenders’ stricter requirements. Borrowers with strong balance sheets or properties with steady cash flows are finding that lenders will compete to finance them. In fact, new loan originations have been rising in recent months as those sidelined in 2024 come back to the market. The presence of those new debt funds we mentioned is a game-changer: if a traditional lender says no, borrowers have more alternative sources to try now. This has helped bridge the gap in situations where, say, a regional bank might have pulled back.

Now, no discussion of 2025 would be complete without addressing the specter of distress that’s loomed over commercial real estate. Earlier in the year, many were worried about a “maturity wall” – a huge wave of loans coming due in 2025 that would need refinancing at much higher rates. Indeed, nearly a trillion dollars of commercial mortgages were set to mature this year, a bit more than in 2024. This has undoubtedly been a challenge: we’ve seen some landlords under strain, especially those holding older offices, hotels during slow seasons, or apartments bought at peak prices with floating-rate debt. Delinquency rates on commercial mortgages did rise throughout 2024 and into mid-2025. For example, the delinquency rate on loans in commercial mortgage-backed securities (which heavily reflect office troubles) climbed to levels we haven’t seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Office loan defaults in particular hit record highs this year – not surprising given remote work’s impact. Even multifamily loans saw a slight uptick in defaults as higher interest costs bit into formerly flush apartment profits.

However, here’s the important part: lately, those distress signals are looking a bit less dire than many feared. Data from late summer into fall 2025 suggests that the rise in delinquencies has slowed, and may even be plateauing. Over the past few months, the volume of newly delinquent loans each month has stabilized, and fewer loans are getting added to “watch lists” for potential trouble. In some measures, overall commercial loan delinquencies have been moving sideways instead of spiking. It appears lenders and borrowers are working through the pain rather than letting it all crash at once. We’ve seen a lot of loan extensions, modifications, and even the infusion of fresh equity by owners to keep their properties afloat. That’s one reason we haven’t had a flood of foreclosures – instead, it’s been more of a controlled burn. The distressed assets that have hit the market are being picked up by specialized investors, which actually helps clear the backlog. In fact, industry reports noted that the total volume of troubled loans and foreclosed properties actually declined slightly in one quarter this year for the first time in almost three years. It ticked up again afterward, but the key is the speed of increase is much slower than before. All this points to the notion that we might be near the peak of the distress cycle.

Now, this doesn’t mean it’s smooth sailing ahead – the workout process for bad loans can take years. We’ll likely continue to see headlines about big office landlords handing keys back to lenders or a mall going into foreclosure. But so far, the systemic risk seems contained. The broader economy is still growing modestly, and job gains – while slower – have kept leasing demand for many property types from collapsing. Strong consumer spending and a stable job market have helped keep cash flow coming in for hotels, shopping centers, apartments, and warehouses. That, in turn, gives owners and lenders more breathing room to sort out debt issues. In short, commercial real estate is navigating a tough transition period, but there are real signs of resilience. Deal activity picking up, lending liquidity improving, and distress stabilizing are all encouraging signals that the industry is working through its reset rather than falling off a cliff. As we head into 2026, many in the business are cautiously optimistic that the worst may be behind us – especially if interest rates continue to trend down or at least hold steady.

Regional Spotlight – Midwest Market Development: For our regional spotlight today, let’s shine a light on the Midwest. We often talk about the Sunbelt states grabbing all the growth, but some Midwestern markets are quietly having a moment. In fact, recent leasing data from the third quarter shows the Midwest leading the pack in an interesting way: renter demand. As the peak apartment leasing season wound down, a number of Midwest cities saw a surge in renter interest. The city that topped the charts? Cincinnati, Ohio. Yes, Cincinnati saw one of the strongest influxes of renters looking for apartments in Q3 2025. This might surprise folks who assume everyone is flocking to Florida or Texas, but it underscores a trend – affordability and quality of life are attracting people to mid-sized heartland cities. The Midwest offers lower housing costs, and as remote work and diversified job growth take hold, cities like Cincinnati, Columbus, and Kansas City are drawing in new residents seeking a balance of job opportunities and reasonable living expenses. For commercial real estate, that’s promising. More people moving in means more demand for rentals, more shoppers for retail, and ultimately more need for offices and industrial space too. We’re already seeing developers and investors take notice. In Columbus, for example, there’s significant tech and logistics investment that’s driving demand for warehouses and even data centers. In Indianapolis and Kansas City, steady population growth is supporting new multifamily projects and fueling retail leasing in suburban submarkets. The Midwest’s reputation has traditionally been slow and steady – economies centered on manufacturing, healthcare, education – not exactly boomtowns. But that steadiness can be a virtue in uncertain times. During the craziness of the pandemic housing market, many Midwest markets didn’t overheat as much, so they haven’t had as drastic a correction. Rents and property values in these cities are more grounded in local economic fundamentals like solid job markets and migration from within the region. Now, with coastal and Sunbelt markets having gotten expensive, some investors see upside in the value play the Midwest offers. It’s not the first region that comes to mind for rapid growth, but the data shows a modest rejuvenation is underway. So, keep an eye on those “flyover” states – places like Ohio, Missouri, Indiana – they just might surprise the industry with their resilience and opportunities. For example, the next time someone asks where renters are moving, you might point to Cincinnati as a case in point that the Midwest is back on the radar.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, November 27, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: mortgage rates are finally easing a bit, insurance costs are squeezing real estate owners, capital markets are showing signs of life again, and one Midwestern city is emerging as a surprise leader.

First up, interest rates and lending. After a long stretch of rate hikes, we’ve seen some relief this fall. The Federal Reserve trimmed its benchmark rate, making financing slightly cheaper than a year ago. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4%, and many commercial mortgages for solid properties are now in the mid-6% range. Borrowing is a bit more affordable than at last year’s peak, though it’s still expensive compared to the rock-bottom rates of a few years back.

At the same time, insurance costs are a growing headache. Property insurance premiums have jumped sharply, especially in disaster-prone areas and for older buildings. Some owners have seen their insurance bills double in just a few years, eating into cash flow. It’s one more thing squeezing budgets, on top of higher utility and maintenance expenses.

On the bright side, the commercial real estate market is showing some positive momentum. Many industry insiders believe values hit bottom late last year and have started inching up. Buyers are coming off the sidelines, and sales volumes are up from this time in 2024. We’re even hearing about multiple offers on high-quality deals again. Multifamily housing is especially active, thanks to persistent housing shortages in many cities. And big investors are hunting for opportunities – just this week, a major firm launched a ten-billion-dollar fund for new data center projects, betting on demand from the AI boom.

But it’s not all clear skies. Lenders remain cautious. Banks have tightened standards, and a mountain of commercial mortgages is maturing. Loans made when rates were near zero now have to refinance at much higher rates, and many owners are struggling to make the numbers work. We’re seeing stress particularly in the office sector, where some landlords with half-empty buildings have defaulted instead of refinancing. Lenders are trying to extend loans to avoid foreclosures, but experts warn that 2026 could see a jump in distressed sales if borrowing costs stay high. On the flip side, private credit funds are stepping in to fill some of the financing gap. They’ll lend on tougher deals that banks won’t touch – albeit at a steep price.

Now for our regional spotlight: the Midwest. Believe it or not, Midwestern cities are emerging as rising stars for renters. In the third quarter, Cincinnati led the nation in attracting new renters, and other heartland cities aren’t far behind. It comes down to affordability and space. As high costs push people out of coastal markets, cities across the Midwest are benefiting. Apartments in those areas are staying full, and landlords have been able to raise rents faster than the national average. Investors are taking notice of this steady demand – the Midwest’s stability and lower prices have made it a surprise bright spot in 2025.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, November 27, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: mortgage rates are finally easing a bit, insurance costs are squeezing real estate owners, capital markets are showing signs of life again, and one Midwestern city is emerging as a surprise leader.

First up, interest rates and lending. After a long stretch of rate hikes, we’ve seen some relief this fall. The Federal Reserve trimmed its benchmark rate, making financing slightly cheaper than a year ago. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 4%, and many commercial mortgages for solid properties are now in the mid-6% range. Borrowing is a bit more affordable than at last year’s peak, though it’s still expensive compared to the rock-bottom rates of a few years back.

At the same time, insurance costs are a growing headache. Property insurance premiums have jumped sharply, especially in disaster-prone areas and for older buildings. Some owners have seen their insurance bills double in just a few years, eating into cash flow. It’s one more thing squeezing budgets, on top of higher utility and maintenance expenses.

On the bright side, the commercial real estate market is showing some positive momentum. Many industry insiders believe values hit bottom late last year and have started inching up. Buyers are coming off the sidelines, and sales volumes are up from this time in 2024. We’re even hearing about multiple offers on high-quality deals again. Multifamily housing is especially active, thanks to persistent housing shortages in many cities. And big investors are hunting for opportunities – just this week, a major firm launched a ten-billion-dollar fund for new data center projects, betting on demand from the AI boom.

But it’s not all clear skies. Lenders remain cautious. Banks have tightened standards, and a mountain of commercial mortgages is maturing. Loans made when rates were near zero now have to refinance at much higher rates, and many owners are struggling to make the numbers work. We’re seeing stress particularly in the office sector, where some landlords with half-empty buildings have defaulted instead of refinancing. Lenders are trying to extend loans to avoid foreclosures, but experts warn that 2026 could see a jump in distressed sales if borrowing costs stay high. On the flip side, private credit funds are stepping in to fill some of the financing gap. They’ll lend on tougher deals that banks won’t touch – albeit at a steep price.

Now for our regional spotlight: the Midwest. Believe it or not, Midwestern cities are emerging as rising stars for renters. In the third quarter, Cincinnati led the nation in attracting new renters, and other heartland cities aren’t far behind. It comes down to affordability and space. As high costs push people out of coastal markets, cities across the Midwest are benefiting. Apartments in those areas are staying full, and landlords have been able to raise rents faster than the national average. Investors are taking notice of this steady demand – the Midwest’s stability and lower prices have made it a surprise bright spot in 2025.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, November 25, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: interest rates and lending conditions, the latest on commercial real estate deal activity and distress, and a spotlight on New York City.

First, the capital markets. The Federal Reserve has started nudging rates down from their peak. We’ve seen two rate cuts since September, but borrowing costs for real estate remain high. New commercial mortgages are still coming in around the mid-6% range, far above the sub-5% rates many borrowers had two years ago, so the Fed’s shift hasn’t brought much relief yet. Lenders remain cautious, with many banks extending loan maturities to avoid defaults and buy time until rates hopefully fall more.

Next, let’s look at deal flow and pricing. Commercial real estate investment activity is finally perking up. In the third quarter, U.S. sales volumes jumped by double digits compared to last year’s lull. In fact, property values have begun rising again in many markets. Nationwide, commercial real estate prices were about 4% higher in October than a year ago – the fastest growth in a few years. Industrial and retail properties are leading this rebound. Even the long-suffering office sector saw a slight uptick in pricing, hinting that we may be past the worst of the valuation slide.

However, not everything is positive. Distress signals are still flashing, especially in offices. Office vacancies and loan delinquencies are at record highs. Around 12% of securitized office mortgages are delinquent – an unprecedented level. And we’re seeing how far office values have fallen. For example, two Denver office towers recently resold for roughly $58 million combined, after fetching about $400 million in 2020 – an over 80% value drop in five years. It’s an extreme case, but it shows how severe the office correction has been. Other property types aren’t immune either. Some apartment owners are feeling the squeeze from higher refinance costs as their cheap loans from the pandemic era come due. And a wall of debt is looming: nearly $1 trillion in commercial mortgages comes due in 2026, forcing many owners to refinance at today’s higher rates. Even as the overall market stabilizes, pockets of distress will linger into next year.

Finally, our regional spotlight is on New York City. New York’s commercial real estate market has been mounting a comeback. Office leasing picked up this year and Manhattan’s office vacancy has dipped to around 13% – one of the lowest among big cities. Investment is picking up too, and some older office buildings are being repurposed into housing. However, the city’s political climate just took a turn that has landlords nervous. New Yorkers elected Zohran Mamdani as mayor – a Democratic Socialist who campaigned on rent freezes and higher taxes on landlords. Naturally, local property owners are concerned this could mean tougher regulations and a chill on investment. It’s too soon to tell how policy will unfold, but investors are watching closely. For now, New York is balancing positive market momentum with a dose of policy uncertainty.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe, and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, November 24, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: interest rates and the capital markets; how lenders and borrowers are coping with higher costs; distress signals and bright spots in commercial real estate; some notable deals showing where investors are active; and a regional spotlight on Charlotte, North Carolina – a market attracting big investments.

Let’s start with interest rates. The Federal Reserve eased up a bit this fall, with a couple of small rate cuts since September nudging its benchmark rate into the high 3 percent range. But don’t get too excited – borrowing costs are still high. The ten-year Treasury yield is around 4.1%, meaning debt remains expensive. Loans that once carried interest in the 4% range are now closer to 6%. So there’s been a little relief, but we’re far from cheap money. The Fed is also cautious about cutting further until inflation cools more. Bottom line: rates have stopped climbing, but they’re still elevated and continue to squeeze financing.

Now, what about lending conditions? Commercial real estate lending remains tight. Banks have pulled back, especially when it comes to office loans. Office vacancies are at record highs, and about 12% of office mortgages are delinquent – an unprecedented level. Lenders are extending loan maturities and doing workouts to avoid defaults, essentially buying time and hoping lower rates later will help. That’s helped stave off a wave of foreclosures so far, but it doesn’t solve the underlying problem. Meanwhile, non-bank lenders are filling some gaps at higher rates and stricter terms. Lenders remain choosy, and many deals only work now if borrowers put in more equity.

How about deal activity? The investment sales market is showing signs of life after a slow spell. Volumes are still below peak levels, but they’re improving as buyers and sellers finally meet in the middle on pricing. Analysts expect 2025 sales volume to end up about 10% above last year – a welcome uptick, even if it’s still below pre-pandemic levels. And we’re seeing some headline deals that show where investors have confidence. For instance, Blackstone is reportedly buying the Four Seasons Hotel in San Francisco. San Francisco’s been a troubled market, so a big player making a bet there suggests they see long-term value at the right price. These kinds of moves illustrate that even with expensive debt, capital is ready to pounce on the right opportunities. It’s selective, but it’s happening.

It’s also clear that performance varies by sector. Office properties are under the most stress, while apartments, well-located retail centers, industrial properties and hotels are generally more resilient or even rebounding.

Finally, our regional spotlight: Charlotte, North Carolina. Charlotte has been shining this year, benefiting from population growth and business investment. Major companies are expanding or relocating there, drawn by a pro-business climate and a solid talent pool. Some big financial firms are adding hundreds of jobs in Charlotte, and the area is landing new manufacturing projects like electric vehicle and battery plants. Simon Property Group just acquired Phillips Place – an upscale shopping center in Charlotte’s SouthPark area – citing the city’s strong demographics. It’s a sign investors are bullish on that market. With its diverse economy and steady inflow of people and capital, Charlotte stands out as a real estate success story in 2025, even as some coastal markets struggle.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, and it’s 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, November 20, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today. First, interest rates are finally offering some relief for real estate investors and borrowers. Also, commercial real estate deal-making is on the rise as the market finds its footing. We’ll discuss signs of distress and recovery across property types. And finally, we have a regional spotlight on the booming Atlanta market.

We start with the macro picture: interest rates are now moving in a favorable direction for real estate. The Federal Reserve has cut rates twice since September, and the 10-year Treasury yield even dipped below 4% this month for the first time in over a year. That’s giving borrowers a bit of breathing room after a long stretch of high financing costs. Lenders are still being cautious—especially on loans tied to struggling office buildings—but overall credit conditions are slowly improving as borrowing becomes a little cheaper.

Next, let’s talk about deal activity and capital flows. Commercial real estate transactions are picking up again. In fact, investment sales volume jumped roughly 17% year-over-year last quarter, a clear sign that buyers and sellers are finding a middle ground on pricing. We’re also seeing a wave of refinancing as owners rush to lock in these lower rates and address the huge number of loans coming due over the next year. Even the CMBS market – those bundled commercial mortgage securities – is showing some signs of life again now that investors are regaining confidence.

Of course, not every part of the real estate landscape is rebounding. The office sector remains the biggest trouble spot. Office vacancies are still near record highs in many cities, and more than one in ten office property loans is delinquent right now. Some prominent landlords have even opted to hand back keys to the bank on office towers that they can’t refinance or fill with tenants.

On the other hand, other property sectors are looking healthier. Retail real estate is enjoying a modest revival as consumers return to brick-and-mortar shopping; well-located shopping centers and grocery-anchored strips are seeing solid foot traffic again. Industrial properties – like warehouses and logistics centers – continue to benefit from strong e-commerce and supply chain demand, even if growth has cooled slightly from the pandemic boom. And multifamily apartments remain a bright spot: occupancy levels are high, new supply is getting absorbed in most markets, and investors are still keen on apartment buildings for their stable cash flow.

Now for our regional spotlight: Atlanta. Atlanta has emerged as one of the nation’s hottest real estate markets this year; just in the past week, New York Life acquired a 245-unit apartment community in the suburbs and Atlanta-based investor Cortland purchased a portfolio of nineteen apartment properties from a real estate trust – huge moves that signal confidence in the area’s multifamily sector. Developers are busy too: a new 60-story mixed-use high-rise in Midtown just topped out, and plans are underway for a massive 1.7-million-square-foot industrial project on the city’s south side. These trends underscore Atlanta’s strong job growth and population gains, and the metro is attracting both businesses and investors with its relative affordability and economic vibrancy. While Atlanta isn’t completely immune to challenges like office vacancies, it’s clearly a market that’s powering through with momentum across multiple sectors.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!