Author: Edward Brawer

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 13, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today:

Interest Rates and Lending: Inflation is hovering near 3%, supporting a steadier Federal Reserve stance with possible rate cuts on the horizon . The 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.1% , helping keep long-term borrowing costs in check. In fact, mortgage rates just slipped below 6% for the first time in over a year – the average 30-year fixed stands about 5.8% today . Cheaper debt is welcome news for commercial investors. Even Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are signaling confidence: each raised their 2026 multifamily lending cap by over 20%, up to $88 billion, to spur more deal flow . Overall, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts commercial loan volumes will jump nearly 24% this year as financing conditions improve .

Insurance Costs Easing: Property insurance is finally getting cheaper after years of painful increases. A quiet 2025 hurricane season allowed insurers to rebuild reserves, and now many owners are seeing double-digit drops in their insurance premiums . Insured disaster losses last year were the lowest since 2019, which has brought some much-needed competition back into the market. Industry experts say lower premiums should persist at least through mid-2026 . However, they caution that one severe catastrophe season could quickly reverse this relief . For now, though, falling insurance costs are providing a small boost to property cash flows across many markets.

National Market Update: Nationally, commercial real estate is starting the year with cautious optimism. Property values have stabilized – a major index showed prices up about 2% in 2025 after the prior year’s declines. Investors are slowly stepping off the sidelines as interest rates level out. Globally, real estate funds raised roughly $164 billion in 2025, and an estimated $250 billion in dry powder is now poised to target CRE deals in 2026 . We’re already seeing more bidding on smaller properties, an early sign that confidence is returning . Notably, many investors are shifting back from high-risk tactics toward steadier, income-focused assets. In fact, opportunistic and value-add funds dominated last year’s fundraising, but there’s growing interest in core real estate plays again – pension and institutional buyers are gravitating to stable properties as they position for a recovery . All of this suggests the market is trying to find a footing, with capital beginning to flow toward deals that pencil out in the current rate environment.

Distress and Opportunity: Yet, not everything is rosy. Distress in the office sector continues to make headlines. Just this week, Columbia Property Trust defaulted again on a $1.7 billion loan tied to a seven-building office portfolio, as values keep sliding and refinancing remains difficult . Many downtown office towers are struggling with high vacancies and looming debt maturities. Even so, the wave of forced sales some expected has not materialized – only about 3% of recent CRE sales are distressed, compared to 20% after the 2008 crash . One big reason is that private debt funds are stepping in behind the scenes. Mezzanine lenders, in particular, have been adding capital to troubled projects to delay foreclosures, using their position in the capital stack to negotiate workouts and avoid fire sales . This means fewer properties are hitting the auction block at steep discounts. At the same time, opportunistic investors are on the hunt. In one bullish move, a joint venture led by Elliott Management is taking City Office REIT private in a $1 billion deal – a bet that Sun Belt office buildings (even beleaguered ones) can recover with the right strategy. It’s a reminder that where some see distress, others see opportunity.

Regional Spotlight – Washington, D.C.: The nation’s capital is tackling its office glut by turning empty buildings into housing. Washington, D.C. now has over 6,500 apartment units in the pipeline from office-to-residential conversions, second only to New York . Office vacancy in D.C. hit a record 22.8%, largely due to federal offices downsizing and more remote work . In response, developers – aided by city incentives – are racing to repurpose underused properties. One marquee project near Dupont Circle will transform a pair of old office towers into 530 apartments, backed by a $750 million investment by Post Brothers and innovative financing like $575 million in C-PACE funding . The conversion push hasn’t been easy: that Dupont project faced an 18-month financing delay as lenders grew skittish amid D.C.’s uncertain outlook and potential federal job cuts . But with a 20-year tax abatement on the table, the developers are moving forward. All told, Washington’s aggressive pivot from offices to apartments reflects a broader trend in many cities. It’s a bet that scrapping some excess office space for much-needed housing will breathe new life into downtown. If it works, D.C. could emerge with a more balanced real estate landscape – fewer vacant offices, more places for people to live – but much depends on execution and whether the local economy can stabilize to support these new residences .

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, January 12, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on interest rates and financing costs, a check on the national commercial real estate market with both distress and recovery in focus, and a regional spotlight on Atlanta’s CRE scene.

Good morning. Interest rates remain a central theme as we kick off the week. After a series of Federal Reserve rate cuts late last year, borrowing costs for commercial real estate have stabilized at roughly the mid-6% range . The 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady in the low-4% territory , which is helping to keep long-term mortgage rates in check. This stability has started to thaw the deal market – buyers and sellers are regaining confidence. In fact, institutional CRE sales activity picked up by about 17% in 2025 as the market adjusted to higher rates . Lenders are still cautious, but there’s a sense that the worst of the rate shock is behind us for now.

Insurance costs are another critical factor for CRE investors, and there’s a bit of good news here. After the turbulent premium spikes of 2023–24, the commercial property insurance market has begun to steady. Insurers have slowed their rate hikes, and competitive pressure is returning in many coverage lines . For well-located properties with solid risk controls, insurance renewals are coming in flat or even slightly lower heading into 2026 . That’s a relief for owners’ bottom lines. However, it’s a tale of two worlds: catastrophe-exposed markets – think coastal hurricane zones or wildfire-prone areas – are still seeing insurers demand hefty premiums, high deductibles, and stricter terms . So while insurance is no longer spiraling upward everywhere, it remains a pain point in high-risk regions, squeezing property cash flows there.

On a national level, the commercial real estate capital markets are showing resilience in select areas. Despite higher interest rates, lenders and investors are finding ways to get deals done for the right projects. Last year saw a robust comeback in commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance – around $130 billion in 2025, nearly back to pre-financial-crisis volumes . Heavy loan maturities forced many refinancings, and strong investor demand for quality assets kept the CMBS market active. Traditional banks, too, cautiously stepped up CRE lending toward the end of 2025, and forecasts call for modest lending growth on the order of 2–3% this year . Importantly, all this capital is highly selective. Lenders have money to deploy, but only for solid deals. Strong, well-leased properties with good sponsors can still finance and even see values hold, whereas weaker assets are being left on the sidelines . The market is clearly diverging by quality and sector – tech-aligned niches like data centers are booming, and even essential retail centers are thriving, while aging office buildings and other specialized assets are facing serious challenges .

Let’s talk about distress and recovery. Overall, commercial real estate is working through a backlog of challenges from the past few years. We continue to see a bifurcated picture. Many property types are on a slow mend – for example, hotels and travel-oriented properties enjoyed a strong rebound as tourism and business travel returned, and multifamily apartments are maintaining stable occupancy with modest rent growth in most markets. Even retail is showing signs of life: in some metros, grocery-anchored shopping centers are at record occupancy levels (Dallas–Fort Worth, for instance, hit 95.3% occupancy last year, an all-time high ). On the other hand, the office sector remains the industry’s trouble child. Office vacancies are high, rents are under pressure, and property values have fallen sharply for older and less adaptive buildings. By the end of 2025, the overall commercial mortgage delinquency rate had climbed to roughly 7.3%, and offices were by far the worst segment – office loan delinquencies spiked to about 11%, an all-time high . Lenders and owners are responding with whatever measures they can. We’re seeing a wave of loan workouts, extensions, and even owners handing back the keys on office properties that just don’t pencil out anymore . It’s a painful process, but it’s also a necessary one to reset valuations and eventually find a market clearing price. The flip side is that better-quality assets – the newer, well-located, amenitized buildings – are still managing to refinance and even attract buyers, often at only slight discounts. This “sorting out” phase means 2026 won’t be a broad rebound for CRE, but we are gradually seeing clarity: the market is figuring out which assets will thrive and which will need to be repurposed or liquidated.

Now for our regional spotlight, we’re looking at Atlanta, Georgia – a metro that encapsulates both the boom and the stresses in today’s market. Atlanta has been a growth story in recent years: strong population and job gains, corporate relocations, and a diversified economy have fueled demand for commercial space. The metro’s industrial warehouses are bustling thanks to logistics and e-commerce, and its multifamily sector remains solid with so many people moving in. Retail has been healthy as well, with well-located shopping centers benefiting from the population influx. But even a thriving market like Atlanta isn’t immune to the office downturn. A striking example just unfolded in the upscale Buckhead submarket: the 27-story Resurgens Plaza, once considered a trophy office tower, fell into distress. Its owner defaulted on an $89 million loan, and rather than face foreclosure, they handed the keys over via a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure . A California investment firm known for mall properties stepped in and took title to the building, marking one of the more high-profile office loan workouts in Atlanta. This illustrates that even in high-growth Sun Belt cities, older office towers can struggle in the current environment. The hope is that new ownership and a lower debt load will reposition assets like Resurgens Plaza for a second life. Overall, Atlanta’s outlook remains upbeat – its strengths in logistics, tech, and film production continue to draw investors – but stories like this Buckhead tower show how pockets of distress are being worked through, even amid a generally resilient market.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, January 9, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on financing conditions – from mortgage rates to insurance costs – plus a look at national commercial real estate trends, signs of distress and recovery, and a spotlight on the booming Dallas–Fort Worth market.

Interest Rates and Lending: After a long stretch of rising interest costs, CRE investors are seeing some relief. The Federal Reserve’s late-2025 rate cuts have brought its benchmark down to about 3.5–3.75% . Markets anticipate additional easing this year, though Fed officials signal caution about how much . One thing is clear: the days of ultra-cheap money are over . Roughly 6% borrowing costs are the new normal for many commercial deals . The upside? This stability is thawing the market. Lenders remain busy refinancing a wave of maturing loans – an estimated $936 billion in commercial mortgages comes due in 2026 . And after a prolonged stalemate on asset values, buyers and sellers are finally meeting in the middle. In fact, institutional CRE sales activity jumped about 17% toward the end of 2025 as price expectations aligned . In short, capital is flowing again, with investors cautiously optimistic going into 2026.

Insurance Costs: On the insurance front, commercial property owners are still feeling the squeeze. Insurers have tightened underwriting standards and raised premiums, even withdrawing from some high-risk regions after recent catastrophe losses . While markets with lower risk have seen rates level off, properties in hurricane-, wildfire-, or flood-prone areas face steeper costs and higher deductibles . Elevated insurance expenses continue to challenge deal underwriting and property budgets as we start the year.

National CRE Market Update: Broadly, the U.S. commercial real estate market is showing resilience after a volatile period. With interest rates stabilizing, the logjam in dealmaking has broken up – as noted, transaction volumes are on the rise . Investors have more clarity on pricing now that financing costs have steadied. According to one industry survey, a majority expect core real estate fundamentals and the cost of capital to improve through 2026 . Debt markets are also reviving: even the CMBS (commercial mortgage bond) market saw a surge in issuance in 2025, hitting the highest volume since 2007 . Ample refinancing needs and slightly lower interest rates are keeping lenders active. Overall, there’s a cautious sense that the worst of the slowdown is behind us – though nobody is calling this a boom, steady confidence is replacing panic .

Distress and Recovery: That said, not all sectors are in the clear. The office sector remains a notable weak spot. Remote and hybrid work are here to stay, pushing office vacancies up and property values down, which in turn raises default risks for office landlords . Lenders and owners are closely watching for distress in older office buildings with looming debt maturities. On the brighter side, retail real estate is a tale of two worlds.  Neighborhood shopping centers – especially those anchored by grocery stores – have become surprise outperformers, with U.S. vacancy rates around just 5%, the lowest in over a decade . These necessity-based centers are benefitting from limited new supply and consumers staying closer to home . In contrast, some legacy mall properties are struggling. One high-end department store chain is reportedly on the brink after missing a $100 million interest payment , and a planned $947 million sale of former JCPenney stores just fell apart – stark reminders of the challenges in repurposing large, outdated retail spaces. Across other sectors, apartments and industrial properties remain in high demand, while hotels have seen gradual recovery with improving occupancy and room rates as travel rebounded late last year . It’s a mixed landscape, but generally the trend is stabilization rather than deterioration as we head into 2026.

Regional Spotlight – Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW): Today we highlight the Dallas–Fort Worth metro, which continues to thrive and attract investor attention. DFW was recently named a top U.S. real estate market for 2026 in a prominent industry outlook, thanks to its booming population, corporate relocations, and diversified economy . The metro’s strengths are evident in the data: retail occupancy in DFW is projected to hit a record high of about 95.6% , as rapid growth by grocers and big-box retailers fuels demand for shopping center space. (Texas grocer H-E-B’s aggressive expansion into North Texas, for example, has prompted rivals like Walmart to build new stores – a retail development surge that benefits local real estate .) Recent deals underscore the confidence in this market – for instance, The Shops at Legacy North in Plano sold for $78 million , a hefty price that highlights deep institutional appetite for quality suburban assets. And development is not slowing down: just this week, developers broke ground on a $750 million mixed-use, transit-oriented project in Plano , betting big on the live-work-play model that continues to draw people and businesses to the region. From industrial warehouses to data centers and retail plazas, DFW’s momentum exemplifies how Sun Belt markets are leading the way in the current CRE cycle.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, January 8, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: mortgage rates have dipped to 15-month lows as the Fed eases off the brakes; commercial insurance costs are finally stabilizing; and capital is cautiously returning to the real estate market. We’ll also highlight which CRE sectors are showing distress or recovery, and take a close-up look at the booming Dallas–Fort Worth metro.

Interest Rates and Financing: The interest rate environment is offering a bit of relief to investors. The Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut last month brought its benchmark rate down to a range of 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest level since 2022 . That shift, plus cooling inflation, has helped pull long-term rates down slightly. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.2% , and mortgage rates have crept down accordingly – the average 30-year fixed mortgage sits at roughly 6.16%, about the lowest we’ve seen in over a year . In short, the era of ultra-cheap money is over, but rates have leveled off. Borrowing costs around 6% are pretty much the new normal for commercial deals , and that newfound stability (even at higher rates) is starting to “crack the ice” in dealmaking . Lenders and investors, knowing what to expect, are tiptoeing back into the market.

Insurance Market Relief: After a volatile few years, commercial property owners are finally seeing some stability in insurance costs. 2025 brought huge insured losses early on, but a quieter finish to the year has eased the pressure on insurers . As we enter 2026, the property insurance market is looking competitive and even softening for quality assets . Policy renewals late last year were flat or even down for many customers, and early 2026 trends point to further rate relief – especially for well-maintained buildings with low claims . There’s more insurance capacity in the market now, which means owners can secure higher coverage limits and better terms in many cases . It’s a welcome break for investors who have been hit with rising insurance premiums in recent years.

Capital Markets and Deal Activity: Nationally, commercial real estate is starting 2026 with a renewed sense of optimism. After a year of uncertainty, confidence in the CRE sector is building: capital is flowing again, interest rates are inching lower, and leasing fundamentals are stabilizing . In fact, 2025 appears to have marked a turning point. Debt became cheaper and more available as the year went on, and by the end of 2025 we saw lending volumes and property sales picking up significantly . Institutional real estate sales rose by roughly 17% in the latter part of the year , a clear sign that buyers and sellers finally reached common ground on pricing . The painful price discovery phase – where buyers demanded big discounts and sellers clung to 2021 values – has largely run its course. With valuations reset to more realistic levels, deals are getting done again . There’s a feeling that the big correction is behind us and that 2026 could reward the patience of those who weathered the storm .

Distress and Recovery: Of course, not every corner of the market is rosy – we’re seeing a real divergence between winners and losers. Let’s start with a bright spot: neighborhood retail centers. These community shopping centers have become an unexpected success story. Vacancies in U.S. neighborhood retail hit their lowest level in over a decade last year (around just 5% empty) . Limited new construction and work-from-home habits have kept people shopping and dining close to home, so well-located grocery-anchored centers are packed with tenants . Landlords in this segment have gained pricing power as space grows scarce. On the flip side, some legacy retail properties are under serious stress. For example, an iconic luxury department store chain is reportedly teetering on bankruptcy after missing a $100 million interest payment . And in another sign of distress, a nearly $1 billion deal to buy over a hundred old mall stores just fell apart when the buyer missed its deadline . Those huge, aging retail boxes – think former big-name department store locations – are proving very hard to repurpose and sell. It’s a reminder that even as consumer spending remains solid, yesterday’s formats are still struggling. We see a similar split in the office sector: top-tier, modern office buildings in prime locations are capturing demand (some major markets even saw positive office leasing momentum in 2025 ), but many older office buildings remain half-vacant and facing an uncertain future. In short, quality is king – whether in retail or office – and outdated assets are feeling the pain as we start the new year.

Regional Spotlight – Dallas–Fort Worth: Now let’s turn to our regional spotlight. Today we’re looking at Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW), a metro that’s kicking off 2026 with significant momentum in commercial real estate. DFW has consistently ranked as one of the nation’s top real estate markets for investors – it’s again a top prospect for 2026 in industry surveys – and much of that buzz comes from its booming retail sector. Retail occupancy in North Texas is nearing record highs. In fact, local retail centers are about 95% occupied, an almost unheard-of level of tightness . What’s driving it is DFW’s explosive population and job growth: people and companies keep flocking to the area, and developers can hardly build new shopping centers fast enough to meet the demand. Just recently, a $750 million mixed-use project broke ground in Plano, reflecting confidence that the suburban “live-work-play” model is thriving here . Another telling sign: the fierce grocery competition in the region. Beloved Texas grocer H‑E‑B has been expanding aggressively into North Texas, and it’s sparked a response from the incumbent giant. Walmart is actually building new Supercenters in the Dallas area – its first new stores here in over a decade – to defend its turf . That is a major vote of confidence in DFW’s long-term growth. When you see the biggest retail players investing like that, it not only brings more retail development around those sites, but also reassures investors that this metro will continue to be a retail growth engine. Overall, Dallas–Fort Worth’s formula of relentless population gains, corporate relocations, and relative affordability is underpinning one of the strongest real estate markets in the country as we head into 2026 .

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 7, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today:

The interest rate environment continues to shift. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate sits around 3.5% after recent cuts , and markets are anticipating a couple more trims later this year even as the Fed’s own projections suggest maybe only one . Long-term borrowing costs remain elevated – the 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4.2% – which means financing isn’t cheap. In fact, borrowing costs of roughly 6% have become the new normal for commercial deals . The silver lining is that this new rate stability has thawed the deal market: buyers and sellers are finally aligning on pricing, and institutional sales activity jumped about 17% in 2025 as capital came off the sidelines . On the insurance front, we’re seeing some relief. After the steep premium hikes of 2023–24, rate momentum has cooled and competition is returning in many insurance lines , though properties in disaster-prone areas still face cautious underwriting .

Nationally, commercial real estate is cautiously finding its footing. Analysts say we’re moving past “peak uncertainty” into a phase of renewed momentum and clarity, with a growing sense of optimism in the market . Monetary policy has eased off the brakes – the rapid rate hikes are behind us – and even a trickle of federal infrastructure spending is helping to stabilize the outlook . Still, the recovery is highly uneven. The story going into 2026 is sectoral divergence : certain segments are surging while others lag. Everyone’s watching the tech-driven niches like data centers (benefiting from the AI boom), but perhaps the biggest surprise is the resilience of retail. Essential retail – think grocery-anchored shopping centers – is thriving thanks to shifting work and shopping patterns, with U.S. neighborhood center vacancies at their lowest in over a decade . Investors are taking note that high-growth metro areas such as Dallas–Fort Worth are amplifying these positive trends . Overall, valuations in core property types have started stabilizing and credit markets are reopening for business . That said, not all is rosy: troubled spots remain, particularly in older offices and some specialized sectors , so selectivity will be key going forward.

Now, let’s talk about distress and recovery developments. The commercial real estate shakeout of the past two years isn’t over yet, but there are mixed signals. On one hand, high-profile defaults are still making headlines. In New York City, the 49-story Worldwide Plaza office tower is headed for a foreclosure auction next week after its owners defaulted on a $1.2 billion mortgage . The tower’s occupancy has plunged to barely 63% , and an appraisal slashed its value from $1.7 billion to just $345 million – an 80% collapse in value that starkly illustrates the pressure on big urban offices . Down in Texas, the new year is bringing a similar theme: roughly $826 million in troubled commercial loans across the major Texas markets are slated for foreclosure auctions this month . That’s a bit lower than December’s volume, but still much higher than last fall’s levels . Most of these at-risk loans are tied to multifamily properties, with a notable chunk in hotels as well – a sign that higher interest rates and expenses have been squeezing property owners beyond just the office sector.

On the other hand, there are glimmers of improvement. Recent data show that overall commercial mortgage delinquencies crept up only slightly at the end of 2025, to about 7.3% , and importantly, the office sector actually notched a second consecutive month of improved performance . Office loan delinquency rates, while still high at around 11.3%, have been ticking down – a hint that the worst might be stabilizing for higher-quality offices . In fact, office properties were the only major category that saw a net reduction in delinquent loans late in the year, an unexpected bright spot as we head into 2026 . By contrast, stress is now showing up elsewhere: retail mortgages led new delinquencies in December , reminding us that even the resilient retail sector has weaker pockets (particularly in older or luxury retail formats) that bear watching. Still, the big picture is that capital is starting to flow again and lenders are cautiously refinancing strong assets – though 2026’s mantra seems to be only the robust will refinance under today’s stricter underwriting standards .

For our regional spotlight today, we turn to Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas – a metro that continues to defy gravity in many ways. DFW is benefiting from structural strengths that many other markets envy: relentless population growth, diversified job gains, and a stream of corporate relocations have made it a top real estate market again for 2026 . Those fundamentals provide a defensive buffer and steady demand that bolster property performance . One area where this is most visible is the retail sector. North Texas has become a retail growth engine – so much so that major grocers and big-box chains are engaging in a kind of arms race to expand there. As a result, retail occupancy in DFW has surged to record levels. Local shopping center vacancies are extraordinarily low; in fact, DFW’s retail occupancy is expected to hit about 95.6%, an all-time high . That figure would have sounded unbelievable a few years ago, but it’s real – driven by aggressive expansion (for example, beloved Texas grocer H-E-B’s entry into the market has spurred competitors like Walmart to build new stores) and strong consumer spending in the suburbs . With so much demand, investors are paying attention: we’ve seen high-quality suburban retail centers trade at hefty prices, and capital keeps chasing deals in this region . Meanwhile, other property types in Dallas are positioning for a rebound as well. The oversupply of apartments that peaked in 2025 is easing – the construction pipeline has pulled back by over 70% since then – and with people continuing to flock to DFW, experts predict a sharp recovery in rent growth by late 2026 as the market rebalances . Even the office market there has a unique bright spot: some local companies are buying older office buildings to convert into their own headquarters, taking vacant space off the market and breathing new life into outdated properties . All told, Dallas–Fort Worth exemplifies how a high-growth, diverse metro can weather the broader CRE storm – it’s become a magnet for “smart money” looking for stability and upside .

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, January 6, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: First, an overview of how the mortgage, insurance, and lending rate landscape is shaping commercial real estate deals as we kick off 2026. Then, we’ll get into the latest national commercial real estate news and capital markets updates – including some surprising strength in retail and what that means for investors – along with commentary on lending conditions, deal activity, and signs of distress or recovery to watch. And finally, our regional spotlight will focus on North Texas, one of the hottest markets going into this year.

Let’s start with the big picture on capital costs. Interest rates are down from their peak but still a far cry from the rock-bottom levels of the early 2020s. The Federal Reserve eased its benchmark rate to around the mid-3-percent range by the end of last year after inflation showed signs of cooling. Now, markets are hoping for a couple more small rate cuts in 2026, but Fed officials are signaling they may only trim rates once more – if at all – in the near term. In other words, the era of ultra-cheap money is over for now. Commercial mortgage borrowing costs have settled around a new normal of roughly 6% interest for many property loans. The silver lining is that this stability, even at higher rates, has given buyers, sellers, and lenders a clearer framework to underwrite deals. It’s a welcome change from the volatile rate swings of the past two years, which made it incredibly hard to price assets. And that stability comes at a critical time, because the industry is staring down a huge refinancing test: roughly $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature in 2026. A lot of those loans were made when interest rates were near historic lows, so borrowers will be refinancing into much higher rates today. Many lenders are offering extensions or creative workout solutions, and hoping property incomes will rise to bridge the gap. But inevitably some owners will struggle to replace their old debt. This looming “debt wall” is one of the key risk factors for the year ahead – it could lead to more distressed sales or defaults if credit conditions don’t improve enough.

Now, another financial pressure on real estate is coming from an unexpected side: insurance. Property insurance costs have been soaring over the past few years, fueled by everything from inflation in construction costs to an upswing in natural disasters. We’re talking hurricanes, wildfires, floods – billions in insured losses that have forced insurers to hike premiums across the board. The good news is that in late 2025 we started to see those premium increases finally begin to stabilize. Insurers have brought more competition back into some markets and are pushing clients to invest in risk mitigation (like better sprinklers or storm-proofing) in exchange for more reasonable rates. But “stabilizing” still means premiums are at very high levels, and it remains a major headache for property owners. This is especially true in sectors like multifamily housing, where landlords can’t simply jack up rents overnight to offset a doubling in insurance costs. Rising insurance bills are eating into net operating incomes and complicating deals, particularly in regions prone to disasters such as coastal Florida or wildfire areas out West. So while the worst may be over for insurance inflation, it’s an issue that will continue to influence investment decisions and property valuations in 2026.

Shifting to the broader commercial real estate market, there are signs that we’ve entered a new phase – one of cautious optimism. Nationally, deal activity is starting to revive after a prolonged slump. In the last quarter of 2025, we saw a notable uptick in property sales volume, especially by institutional investors. Essentially, buyers and sellers have finally adjusted their expectations to the new interest rate reality. For much of 2024 and early 2025, the market was frozen: sellers were holding out for prices from 2021’s boom, while buyers demanded discounts to make deals pencil out at 6% financing. That standoff created a stalemate, but now it seems to be breaking. With interest rates stabilizing and everyone recognizing that those 2021 valuations aren’t coming back, more transactions are clearing. Sellers have become more realistic, and buyers are moving off the sidelines now that they feel prices truly reflect the higher cost of capital. This is a healthy development – price discovery is happening, and capital that sat on pause is starting to flow into deals again.

Where is that capital flowing? Lenders and investors are being picky, but they’re favoring segments with stable cash flow and strong fundamentals. One surprise winner has been the humble neighborhood shopping center. Yes, retail – but not the flashy malls of yesterday. We’re talking about your local grocery-anchored strip centers and everyday essential retail. These properties have demonstrated remarkable resilience. National vacancy rates for neighborhood retail are hovering around just 5%, the lowest level in over a decade. Who could have imagined that a few years ago, when “retail apocalypse” was the buzzword? It turns out that limited new construction and changing consumer patterns have played to the advantage of these convenience-oriented centers. With more people working from home or on hybrid schedules, they’re shopping closer to where they live. Grocery stores, pharmacies, and coffee shops in suburban strips are pulling in steady traffic, and landlords are enjoying solid occupancy and rent growth. Investors have caught on – these grocery-anchored centers are now seen as relatively defensive, recession-resistant assets.

Contrast that with the more challenged corners of retail: we’re seeing a real bifurcation. At the other end of the spectrum, many large legacy retail properties are struggling. Just look at some of the high-end department store chains and aging mall anchors – they’re under serious pressure. In fact, one prominent luxury department store reportedly missed a hefty interest payment recently and is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. And a nearly $1 billion deal to sell off a portfolio of old mall stores fell apart late last year when the buyer couldn’t line up the financing, leaving a heap of big-box spaces still in limbo. Redeveloping those kinds of properties is tough; it takes significant capital and vision to turn an empty anchor store into something like a medical center, apartments, or warehouses. So, while retail overall is faring better than many expected, success is very location- and format-specific. The takeaway: necessity-based retail is thriving, but discretionary, mall-based retail is still facing an uphill battle.

Let’s talk office – the most talked-about trouble spot since the pandemic. The office sector’s story in 2026 remains a tale of two worlds. On one hand, the top-tier “trophy” office buildings – the modern, amenity-rich towers in prime locations – are holding their own. Companies that are committed to in-person work (at least a few days a week) want space that wows employees, so the flight to quality is real. Nationally, vacancies for Class A offices have been stabilizing, and in some major markets the best buildings are maintaining occupancy rates far better than the rest. But then there’s the flip side: the vast stock of older, lower-quality office buildings. Many of those are still languishing with high vacancy and uncertain futures. Tenants have been giving up or downsizing space, and new leasing demand isn’t enough to fill the gap. We’re seeing more owners of these B and C class offices throw in the towel – some are selling at a loss to adaptive-reuse developers, others are defaulting on loans and handing keys back to lenders. A few cities are pushing office-to-residential conversion programs, but realistically that only works for a fraction of these buildings due to cost and design challenges. Interestingly, we have started to see some big financing deals that signal hope in this arena: for example, a major Manhattan office tower secured nearly $900 million to convert into apartments, indicating lenders will get behind conversion projects that make economic sense. So the office sector in 2026 will continue to be a mixed bag: look for well-leased modern offices to perform solidly, while obsolete offices face a day of reckoning (or a creative overhaul) in the years ahead.

In other sectors, fundamentals remain relatively solid. Industrial properties – warehouses, distribution centers – are still in high demand thanks to e-commerce and companies retooling supply chains, though an absolute frenzy of warehouse development over the last couple of years means vacancy rates might tick up slightly in some markets. Even so, industrial vacancy nationally is low by historical standards, and rent growth, while moderating, is still healthy. Multifamily (apartments) likewise had a construction boom; a record number of new apartments opened in 2025. That new supply is tempering rent growth a bit and pushing apartment vacancy slightly higher in a few cities. But the flip side is that high mortgage rates and home prices are keeping many would-be homebuyers in the renter pool, so demand for apartments is expected to keep growing. Most analysts foresee the rental market staying pretty balanced – any softening will likely be temporary until the new units get absorbed. Meanwhile, hotel and hospitality properties are enjoying the rebound in travel, though they too are contending with higher operating and insurance costs. Overall, the commercial real estate landscape is showing a resilience that seemed hard to imagine during the darker moments of the past couple years. It’s not without challenges, but many sectors have adapted in creative ways.

Before we wrap up, it’s time for our Regional Spotlight. Today we’re zeroing in on North Texas – the Dallas-Fort Worth metro – which is kicking off 2026 as one of the most robust real estate markets in the country. DFW has consistently been a darling of investors and a top-ranked market in industry outlooks. In fact, for the second year in a row, the Urban Land Institute’s annual report (done with PwC) named Dallas-Fort Worth the No. 1 U.S. real estate market for overall prospects. And it’s not hard to see why. The region boasts a powerful combination of factors: a fast-growing population, business-friendly economics, and ongoing corporate relocations bringing jobs into the area. That translates into demand for just about every kind of real estate – from apartments and houses for all those new residents, to warehouses and offices for expanding companies, and everything in between.

One segment where North Texas really shines is retail. Earlier we mentioned how strong neighborhood retail is nationally; well, DFW is a prime example of that strength. The metro’s retail occupancy is near record highs – roughly 95% of retail space is filled, which is incredible for a major market. Bidding wars have even broken out among grocery chains entering the market. Texas’ beloved grocer H-E-B has been expanding in the Dallas area, and established players like Walmart have responded by building new stores – their first new DFW stores in over a decade – to defend their turf. This competition is actually great news for real estate: it’s spurring development of new shopping centers and driving up values for existing ones. Just a few weeks ago, an open-air shopping complex in Plano (one of Dallas’s booming suburbs) sold for about $78 million – a huge number that underscores investor confidence in the region. High-quality suburban retail assets in North Texas are in hot demand, and that sale is a testament to the liquidity and appetite out there for the right product.

It’s not just retail. The Dallas metro area continues to see large-scale projects across asset types. There’s ongoing growth in industrial and tech facilities – for instance, a massive new semiconductor factory is under construction just north of Dallas, which is expected to anchor a wider high-tech manufacturing hub. Data centers are another big story: with the race to build AI and cloud computing infrastructure, Dallas has emerged as a key location, though there’s so much demand that even power capacity for new data centers is becoming a constraint. On the office front, Dallas mirrors the national trend of a flight to quality. The difference is that in Texas, some local companies are actually purchasing older office buildings at discounted prices to convert into their own headquarters, taking advantage of the buyer’s market for underused offices. This owner-user trend in DFW is helping take some aging offices off the speculative leasing market. And in multifamily, Dallas saw a flood of new apartments last year, which temporarily cooled rents. But developers have since pulled back on new projects, and with the population still rising fast, many expect Dallas’s apartment market to tighten up again and rents to rebound later in 2026. All told, North Texas enters this year with strong momentum. It has its challenges – like infrastructure keeping up with growth – but it remains a region to watch, exemplifying many of the positive themes in today’s real estate landscape.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it’s 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, January 5, 2026. Here’s what we’re covering today: interest rates finally offer some relief, commercial real estate’s distress and resilience, and a spotlight on Miami’s booming market.

After a long run of Federal Reserve rate hikes, we’re finally seeing some relief. The Fed cut rates last month, bringing its benchmark down from above 5% to the mid-3% range. Long-term interest rates have eased too, and average mortgage rates have dipped back into the high-5% range – the lowest in over a year. Cheaper debt is starting to revive refinancing and deal-making, but rates are still much higher than a few years ago, so investors remain cautious.

Property insurance costs are another major headache for real estate. Huge disaster losses in 2025 – from wildfires to severe storms – have pushed insurers to sharply raise premiums and pull back from risky markets. Insurance bills have skyrocketed in places like California and Florida, squeezing property cash flows and forcing buyers and lenders to scrutinize those costs more than ever.

Now let’s turn to commercial real estate. Offices remain the toughest sector. Vacancy rates are still near record highs, around 18% nationally, and many older buildings can’t find tenants. Office landlords with heavy debt loads are feeling the pain: loan default rates hit record levels in 2025, and some owners have even walked away from struggling properties. The remote-work era has left a glut of office space in some cities. On the bright side, high-end office towers are capturing some tenant demand as companies consolidate into better spaces, and with new construction at a standstill, we may be nearing a bottom.

Elsewhere, other property types are faring better. Multifamily apartments and industrial warehouses continue to perform well. Investors are still putting money into those areas – for example, KKR recently bought a Dallas industrial portfolio for $124 million, and Google’s parent Alphabet just announced a nearly $5 billion investment in data center facilities. Moves like these show that capital is available for opportunities with strong long-term demand, even as the overall market works through a recovery.

Overall, a cautious recovery seems to be taking shape. Sales activity ticked up late in 2025 as prices adjusted and financing got a bit easier. Lenders – from banks to private debt funds – are tiptoeing back in, and even the CMBS market is showing some life again. Government-backed lenders are also increasing support for multifamily projects this year. It’s not a boom by any means, but the industry is heading into 2026 with a sense that the worst may be behind us.

For our regional spotlight today, let’s talk about Miami. South Florida has been one of the nation’s hottest markets, with waves of new residents and companies pushing up demand across office, residential, and retail. Vacancies in Miami remain much lower than in most big cities. Developers are racing to keep up, launching dozens of new high-rises and mixed-use projects. But Miami’s rapid growth comes with challenges: a huge amount of new supply is set to hit the market, and Florida’s property insurance crisis is adding serious costs that could cool things down. Still, investors continue to pour into Miami, drawn by its economic momentum, even as they keep an eye on those rising risks.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, January 2, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on commercial mortgage rates and insurance costs, key updates from the real estate capital markets, and a regional spotlight on Chicago’s office sector.

Let’s start with the financial landscape. After a long stretch of rate hikes, the Federal Reserve trimmed interest rates a few times late last year, bringing its benchmark down to around 4.5% by year-end – a relief from the peak, but borrowing costs remain steep. With many commercial mortgages now around 6% to 7%, refinancing is tough and new loans are pricey. Lenders have become more selective too, so only the strongest deals are getting done. Property insurance premiums, which skyrocketed recently, remain a headache for landlords. The silver lining is those costs have started to stabilize as we enter 2025, but they’re still very high.

Now onto the market at large. The adjustment to higher rates has been painful: property values fell in 2024 and deal activity nearly froze, with the office sector hit hardest. Downtown offices in many cities are still struggling with record-high vacancies from the work-from-home trend. In some cases, owners are walking away from buildings they can’t sustain – one notable example happened in Denver. Not surprisingly, loan delinquencies have climbed. The delinquency rate on commercial mortgage-backed securities is now above 6% – the highest in years – driven mostly by troubled office loans. Lenders are cautious and shoring up their balance sheets.

It’s not all doom and gloom. There’s growing optimism that the worst of the rate shock may be behind us. As prices adjust downward, bargain-hunting investors are tiptoeing back in, and office sales volumes have even started to tick up from last year’s lows as some brave buyers snap up discounted properties. Some big players also sense opportunity: Blackstone’s president says he believes office values have bottomed in top-tier markets. Outside of offices, other property sectors are steadier. Apartments, industrial warehouses and retail have solid demand, even if growth has cooled.

We’re also tracking trends that could help offices over time. Some companies are pushing staff back on-site – Dell, for instance, just mandated a five-day office week – which could gradually refill office space if more follow suit. Meanwhile, many cities are trying to convert old office buildings into apartments to chip away at vacancies in the long run.

For our regional spotlight today, let’s focus on Chicago. Chicago’s office market has been struggling, but a recent burst of deals suggests it might be finding a floor. After a long dry spell with almost no major sales, a few downtown office buildings finally sold – and they went for fire-sale prices. In one case, a tower reportedly changed hands for under $100 million, down from over $500 million just a few years back. Such steep discounts are painful for sellers, but they’re attracting buyers and setting new baseline values. It turned into a domino effect: once one building sold at a deep discount, others followed as investors grew more confident in the pricing. Sales volumes remain far below normal and big institutions are still cautious, but at least deals are happening again. That’s a hopeful sign that Chicago’s office sector may be starting to bottom out.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, December 31, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: an update on interest rates and the insurance crunch, the latest commercial real estate market news and lending conditions, and a spotlight on San Francisco’s market.

Let’s start with the cost of money. After a long stretch of Fed rate hikes, we finally saw a couple of rate cuts late this year. That’s given borrowers a bit of relief, but financing remains expensive. Commercial mortgage rates are still near multi-year highs – roughly two percentage points higher than a few years ago – so deal makers remain cautious. And it’s not just interest rates squeezing real estate: property insurance has become a major headache. Premiums jumped again this year, often by double digits, especially in disaster-prone areas. Some owners now face nearly double the insurance costs of just a few years ago. Those high insurance bills, coupled with high borrowing costs, mean investors and lenders are scrutinizing deals more than ever. If the numbers don’t work, the deal won’t get done.

Nationally, the commercial real estate picture is mixed but stabilizing. Deal volume picked up in the second half of 2025 as buyers and sellers adjusted to higher rates. Sunbelt markets like Texas and Florida led the way in sales, while many coastal cities are still catching up. By property type, industrial and multifamily are bright spots – demand remains strong. Retail and hotels also fared better than expected, thanks to solid consumer spending and a rebound in travel. Offices remain the glaring weak spot. Many downtown office buildings are grappling with high vacancies and plunging values. We’ve seen office towers selling at steep discounts or even ending up in foreclosure. Even with more return-to-office mandates, there’s far more space than tenants to fill it, and that will take time to fix.

Now, on lending. Banks have kept credit tight for commercial real estate. High rates and uncertainty have made lenders much more cautious, especially with office properties and new developments. Many owners with loans coming due are finding that refinancing at today’s high rates is very difficult. So far there’s no huge wave of defaults beyond some high-profile office struggles. Many lenders are extending loans or restructuring debt to avoid write-offs, essentially buying time. Meanwhile, alternative lenders are filling some gaps, but at a higher cost and with stricter terms. The bottom line: financing is available, but only for those willing to pay more and meet tougher requirements.

Finally, let’s turn to San Francisco. Few downtowns were hit as hard as San Francisco’s, with remote work leaving offices empty and property values way down. This year, however, brought some glimmers of hope. For the first time in years, the city’s office vacancy rate has started to inch down. Tech and AI companies are leasing space again, enticed by lower rents. Big investors are returning too, scooping up properties at bargain prices. Major office and hotel deals closed at a fraction of their pre-pandemic values – a sign some are betting on a long-term recovery. Local leaders are pushing office-to-housing conversions and other efforts to revitalize the city’s core. It will be a gradual comeback, but after years of gloom there’s a sense the city has finally hit bottom and is starting to turn a corner heading into 2026.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, December 29, 2025. Here’s what we’re covering today: the latest on commercial mortgage and insurance rates, the state of the real estate market as 2025 wraps up, and a regional spotlight on Dallas-Fort Worth’s booming year.

Let’s start with financing conditions. Borrowing costs are finally easing after a long stretch of Fed rate hikes. The Fed’s latest quarter-point cut this month brought its benchmark rate down to around 3.5%. That’s lower than last year’s peak, and commercial mortgage rates have dipped from their highs. It’s a bit easier now to refinance or get deals done, though lending standards remain tight. Banks remain cautious—especially on riskier projects—but the drop in rates is a welcome relief.

One area not seeing relief is insurance. Commercial property insurance premiums have climbed sharply, especially in disaster-prone states like Florida. After back-to-back hurricanes and insurer pullouts, premiums there jumped well above the norm. Even outside Florida, owners are facing higher coverage costs. These rising expenses cut into budgets and complicate deals, since lenders factor insurance into their underwriting.

Now, how is the market looking as 2025 wraps up? There’s cautious optimism overall. After a rough couple of years, property values have mostly stabilized. Prices bottomed out in late 2024, and in 2025 the investment market slowly thawed. Deal volume ticked up and bid-ask spreads narrowed, helped by easing interest rates. It’s no boom, but momentum is building again.

That said, lenders and investors remain selective and focused on fundamentals. Underwriting is still disciplined, and a wave of loan maturities in 2026 has everyone’s attention. Solid deals with healthy cash flow can still find financing (often from alternative lenders if banks hold back), but weaker assets are under real pressure. Some struggling office owners are even defaulting on loans rather than refinancing at high rates. Meanwhile, better-performing apartments, warehouses, and essential retail properties continue to attract capital on decent terms.

Sector by sector, the differences are stark. Office is the weakest link: vacancies are high and values have plunged, especially for older downtown buildings. In some cases, owners have walked away from towers with untenable debt. On the other end, industrial and multifamily assets are holding up well. Warehouses still enjoy low vacancy and steady demand, and apartment rentals are broadly stable despite rent growth cooling. Retail has been surprisingly solid too—well-located shopping centers and storefronts have kept tenants and foot traffic as consumer spending stays steady. Hotels have also bounced back to pre-pandemic performance with travel running strong.

For our regional spotlight, let’s talk about North Texas—Dallas-Fort Worth. DFW has been one of the nation’s strongest markets this year, buoyed by corporate relocations and rapid population growth. This year saw multiple new headquarters and billions in development across the metroplex. Fort Worth alone reportedly attracted around $6–7 billion in investment, from industrial parks to mixed-use projects. With over 8 million residents and more arriving every day, demand for space is robust across the board. Industrial expansions are ongoing, housing construction is booming, and even suburban office leasing has some bright spots. Dallas-Fort Worth stands out as a magnet for growth, and it’s consistently ranked among the top real estate markets heading into 2026.

That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!