Author: Edward Brawer

  • Deal Junkie – August 11, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, August 11, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: signs the Fed might be done raising rates, a fire sale of a landmark office tower, and investors doubling down on apartments.

    First off, inflation seems to be finally coming under control. Fresh data out this morning shows price growth easing to the lowest pace in over two years, with July’s consumer inflation just a touch above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Over the weekend, a top Fed official suggested the central bank may not need to raise interest rates further if this trend holds. That’s a big deal for anyone in real estate – higher interest rates have been the storm cloud over property markets for the last couple of years. If the Fed is truly done hiking, it could mean borrowing costs stabilizing at last. That would give investors and lenders more confidence to finance deals without fear of another rate spike. Now, rates aren’t likely coming down fast either – the Fed’s making clear it wants to see inflation completely defeated before even thinking about cuts – but just knowing we might have hit the peak is a relief for planning ahead.

    Meanwhile, the office sector is still feeling the pain. In New York City, one of the biggest office deals of the year just closed – and it’s essentially a fire sale. A 50-story office tower in Midtown Manhattan was sold for roughly half of what it was valued at just a few years ago. The previous owner, facing high vacancy and a looming loan maturity, decided to cut their losses and unload the building at a steep discount. The buyer, a private equity firm, is betting they can turn things around over the long term – possibly by repurposing some of the space or simply by holding on until the market recovers. For current owners, sales like this are painful and set new, lower price benchmarks. But for the market as a whole, these kinds of transactions may actually be a step toward finding a bottom. Prices are adjusting to reality, and that price discovery is what needs to happen before investors at large regain confidence. It’s a stark reminder of how dramatically the office landscape has changed with remote work and higher interest costs – but also a hint that opportunistic capital is starting to wade back in, looking for bargains.

    Now, on a brighter note, investors are still finding pockets of opportunity – especially in rental housing. One example: Blackstone just announced a deal to acquire a portfolio of apartment complexes for around half a billion dollars across several Sun Belt cities. Even with higher interest rates, the multifamily sector has remained resilient, thanks to solid tenant demand and a persistent housing shortage. Deals did slow down when financing costs spiked, but as rates level off we’re seeing buyers and sellers inch closer on pricing. Everyday investors are also cautiously returning, eyeing well-located apartment buildings as safer bets. The thinking goes: people will always need a place to live, so apartments should bounce back faster than offices or retail if the economy stays on track. And some of the money that sat on the sidelines is now trickling into real estate funds targeting apartments and even warehouses – capital is shifting toward the sectors with the strongest fundamentals.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

  • Deal Junkie – August 8, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Thursday, August 8, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: Sunbelt apartment oversupply pressures rents and loan performance; warehouse vacancies reach a 12-year high; and the Fed faces a balancing act as a new 401(k) rule could boost real estate investment.

    Sunbelt Apartments Feeling the Heat: The boom in multifamily construction across the South and West is finally catching up with the market. A flood of new apartments is leaving more units empty and giving renters the upper hand. Vacancy rates in some Sunbelt cities have surged above 8%, compared to about 3.5% in the tight Northeast. With so much new supply, rent growth has basically stalled in places like Texas and Florida – in some cases even dipping – while the Midwest and Northeast still see modest increases. Now, despite softer fundamentals, the investment market hasn’t seized up entirely. Apartment sales actually picked up a bit in the second quarter (though volumes remain below last year), and cap rates edged down to around 5.4%, meaning prices firmed up slightly. That’s largely because financing is still available – just not from banks. It’s Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and other government-backed lenders that are carrying the load, stepping in as regional banks retreat. But cracks are starting to show: even multifamily loans, long considered rock-solid, are under stress now. In fact, newly released data on commercial mortgage-backed securities shows apartment loans driving a jump in delinquencies last month. Multifamily CMBS delinquency climbed into the six-percent range – a notable increase – while troubled office loans, which had been the big worry all year, actually leveled off slightly from record highs. It’s a reality check for apartment investors: the easy money and endless rent rises of the past few years are over. Lenders and buyers are getting more cautious, especially in overbuilt markets. Deals will need more realistic rent projections and probably more equity to get done. The upside? Well-managed properties in supply-constrained regions are still performing, and many owners are in decent shape thanks to low fixed-rate debt. But going forward, expect a much tougher lending environment for new developments and a laser focus on location and quality to separate winners from losers in multifamily.

    Warehouse Boom Hits a Speed Bump: Next up, the industrial sector – where we’re seeing the first real pause after a decade-long warehouse frenzy. The national industrial vacancy rate just hit about 7.3%, the highest since 2013. It’s not panic time by any means, but it marks a clear shift from the ultra-tight market of the pandemic years. Developers delivered a huge wave of logistics space in the last quarter – roughly 71 million square feet – while tenants only leased about one-third of that amount. Amazingly, this sector is still on a 15-year streak of positive net absorption (companies are still taking more space than they give back), but the race between supply and demand is getting lopsided. Vacancy is creeping up across most regions, especially in big distribution hubs. The South, including mega-markets like Dallas and Atlanta, now has the highest industrial vacancy around 8.5% thanks to all that new construction. The Midwest remains the tightest (near 5.5% vacancy) since building there has been more restrained. On the West Coast, some previously white-hot areas like the Inland Empire are seeing vacancies rise and even a quarter of negative absorption as e-commerce growth cools off. The good news is that developers are tapping the brakes. The amount of industrial space under construction nationwide has dropped dramatically – it’s less than half of what it was at the peak in 2022. That should bring the market closer to balance by early next year, with vacancies expected to plateau around the mid-7% range. Meanwhile, rents for warehouses are still inching up on average – roughly 4% higher than a year ago nationally – though rent growth is much slower than before and even reversing in a few oversupplied submarkets. For investors in industrial real estate, this is a moment to adjust expectations. We’re moving from the feverish boom to a more normal, sustainable environment. Landlords might have to start offering a few concessions to fill space, and buyers will underwrite deals more conservatively, knowing that double-digit rent jumps are off the table. But demand for modern logistics facilities remains structurally strong, so well-located warehouses should continue to perform. In short, the sector is catching its breath – not falling off a cliff.

    Fed Juggles Risks, and 401(k) Money Eyes Real Estate: Finally, let’s zoom out to the macro picture, where new signals from Washington could shape the CRE outlook. The Federal Reserve is in wait-and-see mode, facing mixed signals on the economy. On one hand, inflation has been cooling off; on the other, the job market is finally showing signs of slowing. In a speech on Friday, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said policymakers now see “risks on both sides” of their mandate – meaning they’re worried about inflation staying too high and about growth and employment softening too much. With that balancing act in mind, he didn’t commit to any policy move yet. But the general expectation on Wall Street is that rate cuts are getting close. Investors are betting the Fed might trim its policy rate at the September meeting and again by December, especially after July’s anemic jobs report and ongoing fallout from trade tariffs. Remember, the Fed has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings this year, holding the benchmark around 4.25 to 4.5 percent. Any hint of an upcoming cut is music to the ears of real estate folks, because lower interest rates would relieve some pressure on financing costs and cap rates. Meanwhile, the political side is also getting interesting for the Fed. President Trump this week named economist Stephen Miran to an open seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors – a move that could tilt the central bank slightly more dovish as we head toward an election year and an eventual decision on the next Fed Chair. We’ll keep an eye on that, but there was another big policy development just yesterday that could have long-term implications for commercial real estate investing. Trump signed an executive order directing regulators to make it easier for 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets – and yes, that includes real estate. This is a huge $12 trillion pool of capital in 401(k)s that, up until now, has been mostly off-limits to private real estate and private equity funds. The order tells the Labor Department and other agencies to update the rules so that regular workers’ retirement portfolios could eventually include things like real estate projects, infrastructure, maybe even crypto and other non-traditional investments. Now, nothing changes overnight – it will take months for regulators to propose and finalize how this works, and it could be years before your average 401(k) offers a real estate fund option. There’s also plenty of debate around it: supporters say it will unlock new diversification and return potential for savers, while critics warn about higher fees, illiquidity, and risks that 401(k) investors might not fully grasp. But if it does go forward, we could see a wave of new capital flowing into real estate funds down the road, which would be a game-changer. For commercial property investors today, the immediate focus is still on the Fed – when will those rate cuts come? – but this 401(k) news is a reminder that big shifts in how capital moves into the sector may be on the horizon. Lower rates and fresh sources of funds would be welcome relief after a year of tight money. Of course, we’ll believe it when we see it – the industry has learned to be nimble in the face of uncertainty – but it’s certainly something to watch in the months ahead.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael — until next time!

  • Deal Junkie – August 7, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, August 7, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: the exit of a major office landlord from Chicago and San Francisco, the silver lining in a nationwide construction slowdown, and a Fed official’s warning that the economy may be hitting a turning point.

    First up, Vornado Realty Trust signaled it’s ready to shed its last big assets outside New York City. On an earnings call, CEO Steven Roth said “nothing is sacred” – Vornado would sell Chicago’s Merchandise Mart and San Francisco’s 555 California Street “for the right deal at the right time.” Those two properties are the remaining 10% of Vornado’s portfolio not in NYC, so selling them would complete its pivot to an all-New York strategy. This comes on the heels of a strong quarter for Vornado, with major Manhattan leases and sales reinforcing Roth’s view that Manhattan is the strongest market in the country. Markets like San Francisco and Chicago are struggling by comparison, even though 555 California is nearly full while its city’s office market has record vacancy. The takeaway: even blue-chip landlords are retrenching to core markets. Vornado is doubling down on what’s working and cutting bait where it isn’t – a reminder that in today’s CRE landscape, location and asset quality drive strategy.

    Next, new data on construction is giving commercial real estate owners a reason for cautious optimism. U.S. construction spending has fallen for nine straight months and is about 4% lower than a year ago – a clear sign that developers are pumping the brakes. While a building slump sounds bleak, it’s easing future supply pressures. Fewer projects in the pipeline means less competition for existing properties. In sectors that saw some overbuilding – like apartments and industrial warehouses – this cooldown is helping occupancy and rents stabilize as demand catches up. Office and retail construction was already minimal, given remote work and e-commerce headwinds, so hardly any new offices or shopping centers are breaking ground. The upshot: with fewer cranes in the sky, landlords may see their buildings hold value better and fundamentals improve. And big capital is still on the move – this week Brookfield Asset Management agreed to invest $6 billion for a 20% stake in Duke Energy’s Florida utility business. That’s an infrastructure play, not a traditional property deal, but it shows that even with higher interest rates, large investors are still hunting for opportunities when the terms are right.

    Finally, on the macro front, Americans’ long-term inflation expectations have jumped – driven in part by new tariffs – which could make the Fed think twice about cutting rates. But at the same time, Fed Governor Lisa Cook called the latest jobs report “concerning,” noting hiring has averaged only ~35,000 a month recently and prior numbers were revised way down. That pattern often signals an economic inflection point. In short, inflation isn’t defeated yet, but the economy is clearly losing momentum. It’s a tricky balance for policymakers: markets are now betting the Fed might cut rates as soon as next month to shore things up. For real estate investors, a rate cut would ease financing costs – a welcome break for refinancing and deals – but only if it doesn’t come alongside a severe downturn. All eyes are on the Fed’s next move.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

  • Deal Junkie — August 6, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, August 6, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: recession storm clouds put the Fed in a bind; office investors hunting for a market bottom; and retail surprises with resilience.

    First up, the macroeconomic backdrop. The U.S. economy is sending mixed signals that have investors on edge. A leading economist is warning the economy is “on the precipice of recession,” after last week’s data showed weaker-than-expected job growth and a pickup in inflation. Consumer spending has flatlined, manufacturing and construction are contracting, and even hiring is slowing down. With inflation still running a bit hot, the Federal Reserve faces a dilemma – it can’t easily cut rates to stimulate growth without risking higher prices. Markets are now wagering that the Fed might cut interest rates as soon as next month if the data continues to weaken. In fact, bond yields have dipped in recent days, and mortgage rates fell for the third week in a row. Lower rates have already given a jolt to housing activity – mortgage applications jumped about 3% last week as borrowers seized the moment. For commercial real estate investors, this environment is a double-edged sword: cheaper debt may be on the horizon, but a potential recession could soften tenant demand across property types. Even the once-red-hot apartment sector is showing a few cracks – national occupancy is still very high (around 95%+), but rent growth has essentially stalled out as landlords prioritize keeping units filled. It’s a reminder that while the economy’s cooling could ease financing costs, it’s also prompting caution about leasing and rents moving forward.

    Turning to the office sector – could we be seeing a tentative turnaround? In Los Angeles, office building sales have suddenly surged, suggesting some investors believe the worst may be over at least in that market. Office investment volume in L.A. more than doubled in the second quarter from a year ago to roughly $1.2 billion, after a long drought. Brokers are saying this might mark a bottoming-out: more sales are finally giving clarity on pricing, and a few big deals north of $100 million indicate bargain hunters are back. There’s a sense that with so many distressed office properties hitting the market, buyers are swooping in on discounted towers and resetting values. Owners under pressure – like those with high vacancies or looming loan maturities – are increasingly offloading buildings at fire-sale prices. Opportunistic investors see that distress as a chance to buy low, hoping to reposition the buildings or refinance at better terms. Private local buyers have led the charge so far, but interestingly some institutional players and REITs are tip-toeing in again, looking at prime locations that are now available at fractions of their old prices. Does this mean offices are out of the woods? Not by a long shot – L.A.’s office vacancy is still sky-high (around one-quarter of space sits empty) and roughly half of the city’s office stock is considered “economically unviable” in its current form. Many buildings simply aren’t earning enough to cover their debt, which is why we’re seeing these steep discounts. And this isn’t just an L.A. story: nationwide, office vacancies are near record levels and office loan defaults have spiked to their highest rate since the Great Financial Crisis. Lenders are getting tougher about extending terms, so more troubled offices are likely to change hands in the coming months. The slight silver lining is that prices have fallen so much in some cities that buyers are finally willing to deal – that’s the first step toward a recovery. But it’s a long road ahead. In fact, some major investors are still steering clear of the office sector entirely. Just this week, private equity giant Carlyle Group closed a $9 billion real estate fund that pointedly won’t touch office buildings (or malls, for that matter). They’re pouring that capital into apartments, warehouses, and self-storage instead – sectors they see as having better fundamentals. That kind of says it all: even as a few brave buyers test the office waters, the big money is mostly betting elsewhere until the office outlook improves.

    Finally, let’s talk about retail – a sector that’s quietly defying some of the doom and gloom. 2025 has thrown a lot at retailers, from sticky inflation to rising labor costs, and we’ve seen a parade of familiar names struggle. In the first half of the year, several big chains went bust or downsized – we’re talking Party City, Rite Aid, Joann Fabrics, and others closing stores and filing bankruptcy. It’s been a challenging environment, especially for legacy brands that failed to adapt. Yet, it’s not all bad news on Main Street. In fact, many retailers are in expansion mode and backfilling those empty spaces. Discount and value-oriented chains are leading the charge: brands like Burlington, Five Below, and Tractor Supply are opening new stores by the dozen, capitalizing on consumers’ hunt for bargains. Even some more upscale and specialty retailers are growing – for instance, Nordstrom Rack and Boot Barn are adding locations, and the once-eulogized Barnes & Noble has returned to opening new bookstores with a revamped concept. Perhaps most surprisingly, digitally-native companies are flocking to brick-and-mortar. A wave of online brands – from eyewear to apparel – have decided they need physical stores to reach customers. We’ve seen Warby Parker hit 300 stores, and newcomers like certain e-commerce fashion and lifestyle brands are popping up in malls and street fronts, bringing fresh concepts into the mix. All this expansion energy means that while some older retailers fade away, there’s a pipeline of new tenants ready to sign leases, especially in prime locations.

    The latest results from the biggest mall owner in the country underscore this resilience. Simon Property Group, which owns many top-tier malls, just reported a strong quarter and actually raised its full-year outlook. They’ve managed to push occupancy at their malls up to about 96% – a level not seen in years – and their net income jumped, prompting management to hike their profit guidance and even boost the dividend. In plain English: shoppers are back, and the best retail centers are benefiting. Simon’s executives did note some caution around the broader economy and those ever-present tariff issues (since higher import costs can hit retailers’ margins). But overall, the message was optimistic – tenant sales and foot traffic are healthy at quality malls, and retailers are keen to lease space there. This highlights a “flight to quality” theme we’re hearing across CRE: Class A retail properties in good locations are thriving, even as lower-tier shopping centers still struggle with vacancies. Landlords with the right locations and mix of tenants are able to charge higher rents and are seeing very low vacancy, whereas outdated strip malls or malls in weaker markets are the ones dealing with empty storefronts. For investors, the retail picture is more nuanced than a few headline bankruptcies suggest. The sector is evolving: experiential tenants, like restaurants and entertainment venues, are taking up slack in many centers, and essential-needs retailers (grocery, discount, home improvement) continue to drive steady traffic. So while some investors have been wary of retail – lumping it in with office as “troubled” – the reality is far more balanced. There are clear winners and losers, but the winners are showing that brick-and-mortar retail still has plenty of life. In short, American consumers haven’t given up on shopping in person – and that’s keeping savvy retail landlords and investors in the game.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael — until next time!

  • Deal Junkie – August 5, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Tuesday, August 5, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: record apartment vacancies, mounting office distress, and a surprising retail and industrial rebound.

    Apartment Market Oversupply: America’s multifamily sector is flashing caution signs. National apartment vacancies have surged to around 7% – the highest level on record – and average rents are slightly below where they stood a year ago. The culprit is a glut of new units after a construction wave. Many landlords are now offering discounts to fill buildings. Rent declines have been sharpest in overbuilt Sunbelt metros like Austin. Some previously weak markets are stabilizing, but for now landlords have little pricing power. Investors are feeling the squeeze on income, though if new development continues to pull back, the market could gradually regain its balance.

    Office Sector Struggles: The office market’s downturn is deepening. Vacancies are stuck near 20% nationwide, and billions of dollars in office mortgages are coming due with uncertain prospects for refinance. With higher interest costs and remote work reducing demand, more landlords are walking away from properties instead of digging deeper. Some buildings that do sell are trading at massive discounts from their past values. Sensing the risk, major investors are shying away from offices entirely. For example, private equity giant Carlyle just raised a multi-billion dollar real estate fund that will completely avoid office assets, focusing instead on sectors it views as more stable. One silver lining: we’re seeing more empty office towers being converted to apartments or other uses, which could slowly help absorb excess space.

    Bright Spots – Industrial and Retail: Not every corner of commercial real estate is struggling. Industrial and logistics facilities remain a relative bright spot. Warehouse vacancies have risen only slightly from record lows, and well-located distribution space is still in strong demand. Developers continue to bring new projects online, but much of that space is pre-leased by companies expanding their supply chains. Rents for modern warehouses are even inching up, and big landlords like Prologis remain bullish, pressing ahead with new builds.

    Meanwhile, restaurants are leading a retail real estate revival. In big cities such as New York, retail vacancy has fallen to its lowest in a decade as eateries snap up vacant storefronts. Food and beverage tenants are expanding aggressively – even retrofitting former shops with costly kitchens – to feed surging consumer demand for dining out. (As the saying goes, you can’t stream a steak.) These lively new restaurants are drawing foot traffic back to shopping districts, helping lift rents in prime locations and offsetting some of the pressure that online shopping placed on traditional retail.

    Macro Outlook – Potential Rate Relief: Finally, interest rates may soon become a tailwind instead of a headwind for real estate. After a surprisingly weak July jobs report, speculation is building that the Federal Reserve could cut rates in the near future – possibly as early as its September meeting. Fed officials have signaled that a policy shift is on the table if the labor market continues to cool. For commercial real estate investors, a rate cut would lower financing costs and could breathe life into deal activity. The flip side is that the economy is slowing, which could temper tenant demand. Still, the prospect of cheaper debt ahead is a welcome development after a long stretch of painful borrowing costs.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—until next time!

  • Deal Junkie — August 4, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Monday, August 4, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: a surprising rebound in commercial real estate deals, a bold bet on distressed office buildings, and new warning signs for construction and credit markets.

    Commercial real estate investment is finally perking up again. New figures show U.S. property sales totaled $182 billion in the first half of 2025 – roughly 25% higher than a year ago. Dallas–Fort Worth is leading the charge, with sales nearly double what they were last year thanks to a wave of apartment building trades. Multifamily assets are drawing strong interest nationwide, and industrial demand remains solid as well. Even retail isn’t left out – a REIT just bought ten single-tenant store properties for about $76 million. Overall, sales volumes are still a bit below last year’s pace, but momentum is building. Many expect the market to strengthen further in the second half as buyers and sellers adjust to the new normal.

    The office sector remains a trouble spot – but even here, some investors see opportunity amid the distress. In the Washington, D.C. area, landlord JBG Smith is taking a contrarian gamble by snapping up distressed office buildings at bargain prices. It just paid $42 million for three office properties in Tysons, with plans to convert one into apartments. To fund it, JBG sold roughly $450 million worth of apartments, effectively rotating out of multifamily and into offices. Their CEO calls today’s rock-bottom office prices the best buying opportunity in twenty years. Meanwhile, WeWork is trying to reinvent itself with a “WeWork for Business” rebrand aimed at corporate tenants, shedding its old startup image. Overall, the office landscape is still bleak, but a few bold players are picking their spots – betting that today’s wreckage will yield returns down the road.

    On the economic front, a key forward-looking indicator for construction is still flashing caution. The American Institute of Architects’ Billings Index remains stuck below the breakeven 50 mark, signaling that architecture firms are seeing fewer new projects ahead. That points to a slowdown in development over the next year. The AIA’s forecast calls for only minimal growth in commercial building spending this year and next.

    Meanwhile, credit conditions remain tight, and many owners are in limbo with their loans. A new report from Trepp highlights a growing “maturity wall” – roughly $23 billion in securitized commercial mortgages have blown past their maturity dates without resolution, a huge jump from virtually none a few years ago. Many borrowers are still paying interest, but lenders and owners are kicking the can instead of forcing painful refinances or sales. This is mostly happening with office loans and some apartment loans, while retail and hotel debt has seen fewer issues. That extend-and-wait approach has prevented a flood of foreclosures, but it’s also frozen part of the market until financing gets cheaper.

    And speaking of financing, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at its last meeting, and there’s talk a couple of Fed officials wanted to cut rates – hinting the tide could be turning. Still, with inflation above target, the Fed isn’t declaring victory yet. As long as the 10-year Treasury yield sits around 4.3%, refinancing remains expensive and many deals will stay on ice. Finally, a bipartisan housing bill advancing in the Senate aims to spur more development to ease housing shortages over time.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

  • Deal Junkie – July 31, 2025

    This is Deal Junkie. I’m Michael, it is 8:30 AM Eastern on Wednesday, July 31, 2025, here’s what we’re covering today: the Fed holds off on rate cuts as inflation stays hot; a big real estate player bets on distressed offices; and the warehouse sector finally hits a cooling point after years of red-hot growth.

    The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady and signaling no quick relief in borrowing costs. Yesterday the Fed kept its benchmark rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range again, noting inflation – about 2.8% on a core basis – isn’t slowing enough yet. Chair Jerome Powell hinted that a rate cut in September is unlikely given those price pressures and a still-sturdy economy. For commercial real estate, that means financing will remain pricey for now. Deals may stay harder to pencil, but the upside is the economy isn’t faltering, which helps keep demand for space reasonably solid across most property types.

    In the office sector, a surprising contrarian move is making headlines. JBG Smith, a major DC-area landlord, is doubling down on offices while others are running away. The company sold roughly $450 million worth of apartment buildings last quarter and is using that cash to snap up battered office properties and even buy back its stock. JBG just paid about $42 million total for three Northern Virginia office buildings – one of which it plans to convert into apartments. CEO Matt Kelly says it’s the best chance in 20 years to buy offices on the cheap. It’s a bold bet at a time when many offices have seen their values plunge – for example, a 1.2 million-square-foot tower in Denver was recently appraised roughly 60% lower than a few years ago. JBG’s strategy signals that some investors see long-term value in today’s distressed office market. And while plenty of older offices are going dark, there are bright spots: top-tier buildings are still landing big tenants. For investors, offices remain risky territory, but the shakeout is creating opportunities for those with patience and creative vision – especially as obsolete buildings get repurposed and supply shrinks.

    Turning to industrial real estate, the warehouse boom is finally hitting a speed bump. National industrial vacancy rose to around 8.1% in the second quarter – the highest level in about 12 years. After a frenzied run of construction to meet e-commerce demand, new warehouses are delivering faster than tenants can fill them. We’re seeing a bit more empty space in once-tight logistics hubs as companies digest the space they’ve already taken. This isn’t a crash by any means – leasing is still positive – but rent growth is cooling and landlords are having to compete a bit more for tenants. For investors, the industrial sector is shifting from extraordinary to more ordinary. It’s still a strong asset class, but not the seller’s market it was. Expect more normal leasing times and potentially some buying opportunities if overextended developers look to unload projects now that the market is balancing out.

    Finally, let’s look at retail – an asset class showing fresh signs of life. Mall operator CBL Properties is betting on a mall revival by acquiring four malls from a competitor for about $179 million. These are regional malls in places like Kentucky and Colorado – not high-end flagships, but solid middle-market centers. It’s a notable deal that suggests even non-glamorous malls have investor confidence, thanks in part to minimal new retail construction over the past decade and consumers returning to in-person shopping. Meanwhile, in the open-air shopping space, there’s interest as well: in suburban Atlanta, a 174,000-square-foot community center just sold for $25 million, showing that well-located neighborhood centers remain attractive investments. The broader message is that brick-and-mortar retail isn’t dead; quality retail properties are drawing buyers again. Investors are becoming selective – the best-located malls and shopping centers with strong tenant mixes are finding new life, even as weaker retail properties still face reinvention.

    That’s all for now, but we’ll be back tomorrow. Don’t forget to hit follow or subscribe and leave a review to help others discover the show. I’m Michael—Until next time!

  • Year of the Four Emperors: Vitellius and Vespasian (Part 4)

    Welcome to Imperial History, the podcast where we explore the epic stories of empires that shaped the world, from their triumphant rises to their dramatic falls. I’m your host, Eric Alexander.

    In our last episode, we left off with Otho’s final act—the self-inflicted dagger thrust meant to spare Rome from further bloodshed. He chose to die rather than drag the empire into a prolonged civil war. His sacrifice, noble or not, was in vain. Because just as the Senate declared Vitellius emperor, the eastern legions declared Vespasian emperor. The Year of the Four Emperors was not over yet.

    But who was Vitellius? Unlike Otho, whose name might evoke some measure of tragic dignity, Vitellius is often remembered—if he is remembered at all—as a gluttonous buffoon, a placeholder in history, a doomed man whose only legacy was to be the stepping stone for the true ruler who would follow. And as is often the case with history, this reputation was largely shaped by the people who wrote it.

    Much of what we know about Vitellius comes from the biographer Suetonius, who paints a picture of a man almost comically decadent—a bloated, insatiable eater who indulged in banquets four times a day, so addicted to excess that he used emetics to purge his stomach and make room for more food. Suetonius tells us that Vitellius would wander from house to house in Rome, stuffing himself on the hospitality of the aristocracy, reveling in his new imperial privilege like a man who knew his days were numbered. Was this a factual portrayal? Maybe. But maybe it was the kind of character assassination that tends to follow emperors who lost their power, especially when their successors had a vested interest in making them look weak, corrupt, and unworthy.

    But let’s not kid ourselves—Vitellius was no paragon of virtue. He was ruthless when it suited him, pragmatic when it came to consolidating power, and absolutely unafraid to spill blood to secure his throne. One of the darker stains on his record? The murder of his own son—his child from a previous marriage, whose only crime was being the sole heir to a wealthy family fortune that Vitellius wanted access to. It’s the kind of act that cements an emperor’s legacy in infamy, the sort of cold, calculated brutality that Roman rulers were often judged by.

    Vitellius wasn’t a nobody before his rise. He had a distinguished career under emperors like Tiberius and Nero, holding various administrative and military posts. But his path to the purple was carved by the legions on the Rhine. Early in the chaos of of the year 69, while Galba still sat uneasy on the throne, the Rhine legions revolted and declared Vitellius their emperor.

    By the time Vitellius and his forces reached Italy, however, Galba was already dead, cut down by Otho’s coup. But Otho’s rule was fragile, built on quicksand. Otho, seeing the writing on the wall, took his own life, leaving the throne open for Vitellius to claim.

    With Rome now his, Vitellius sought to cement his power. He rewarded his legions by expanding the Praetorian Guard and filling it with his own men from the Rhine army, ensuring that his power base in the capital was loyal to him alone. He allowed important positions of state be filled by competent members of the equestrian class. He also, interestingly enough, embraced the legacy of Nero, a move that probably seems bizarre to modern audiences but made perfect sense in the context of the year of 69. Nero, despite his vilification by the Senate and later historians, had remained wildly popular with the lower classes of Rome. 

    Now, who was Vespasian? Unlike many of Rome’s past rulers, he wasn’t from an ancient, aristocratic family. He came from more modest equestrian origins. His father had been a tax collector, and his family had no grand political legacy to lean on. Yet, like so many men of his generation, he built his career through military service.

    Vespasian had seen combat early in his career, serving in the legions along the Rhine, but his real rise began during Claudius’ invasion of Britain in year of 43. As a legate, he led the Second Legion and distinguished himself in battle. By the end of the campaign, he had captured dozens of enemy strongholds, defeated local chieftains, and firmly established himself as a capable military commander. This success earned him the governorship of Africa—a position that, for many Romans, was less about governance and more about personal enrichment.

    It was common for provincial governors to return to Rome wealthier than when they left, having used their time in office to extract as much profit as possible. But Vespasian took a different approach. Rather than amassing great wealth, he focused on maintaining good relationships. He built connections instead of fortunes—a decision that may not have seemed immediately beneficial but would prove invaluable in the years to come.

    By the year of 66, Rome had a new problem: the province of Judea was in full revolt. The previous governor had been killed, and a Roman army sent to restore order had been routed. Nero, still emperor at the time, needed someone reliable to take control of the situation. Vespasian was chosen to lead the effort, given command over two legions, with his son, Titus, bringing additional reinforcements from Alexandria.

    But the world was changing fast. By the time Vespasian had stabilized the situation in Judea, Nero was gone, and Rome had entered the chaotic period known as the Year of the Four Emperors. As one ruler after another fell, the legions of the East held off backing any candidate until Vitellius was Emperor. When this happened, they backed Vespasian.

    Tacitus, Suetonius, and the Jewish historian Josephus all mention a prophecy that circulated widely in the Eastern provinces. It foretold that from Judaea would come the rulers of the world. They ascribed this prophecy to Vespasian as he was the Roman In charge of judea. While someone in modern times would almost certainly ascribe this prophecy to the christians who were the heirs of the Roman world, at the time, Vespasian seemed like the obvious answer. 

    Vespasian sent Mucianus, governor of Syria, to lead his forces against Vitellius. And while Mucianus gathered forces and prepared for the march westward, something happened—something that would decide the fate of the empire before he even arrived.

    The legions began to rise in favor of Vespasian. Dalmatia. Illyricum. And perhaps most significantly, the Danubian legions stationed in Raetia and Moesia. This was no minor force—these were hardened veterans, some were men who had once set out to support Otho before he was cut down by Vitellius. 

    This was an army. And this army had a leader. Marcus Antonius Primus.

    Primus was the commanding officer of the 7th Galbiana legion, and he wasn’t about to sit around waiting for orders. While Mucianus prepared his own forces, Primus took the initiative.

    Vitellius wasn’t blind to what was happening. He knew his grip on power was slipping.

    He dispatched Caecina, one of his top generals, with a massive force. Four full legions along with auxiliaries and detachments from seven more legions. This was no token defense—this was an army built to crush rebellion. They made their way north, moving to intercept Antonius Primus and his advancing Danubian legions.

    By the time Antonius’ men reached Verona, Vitellius’ army was already positioned. The battle lines were drawn.

    And yet… no battle came.

    Caecina hesitated.

    Some said he feared splitting his forces, that he wanted to wait for the rest of Vitellius’ armies. But the truth was more insidious than that. Caecina had been plotting. Behind closed doors, in whispered conversations, he had been preparing to switch sides. He had already reached out to Sextus Lucilius Bassus, commander of the Classis Ravennas—the fleet stationed at Ravenna—and together, they were planning to defect to Vespasian.

    But soldiers are not pawns on a chessboard. They are men. And men do not always follow orders. When the troops caught wind of Caecina’s betrayal, they mutinied. They refused to switch sides. They turned on their general, put him in chains, and effectively decapitated their own command structure.

    With Caecina in chains, the army he once commanded was now like a headless beast—still dangerous, still lethal, but without a guiding hand. 

    Antonius had positioned himself at Bedriacum, a place that had already witnessed one civil war battle that year, when Otho’s forces were shattered months earlier. He rode out with his cavalry, meeting the Vitellian vanguard on October 24th, somewhere between Bedriacum and Cremona. After Scattering the Vitellian cavalry, Antonius sent word back to Bedriacum: Send the legions.

    And so they came. What followed was the Second Battle of Bedriacum—a decisive, bloody engagement that would carve a place in history. But there was still no firm hand to lead them. Valens, the man meant to replace Caecina, had not yet arrived.

    And then… something happened.

    A small act. An ordinary ritual.

    One of Antonius’ veteran legions, had served in Syria for years. And in that distant province, they had picked up a tradition. As the sun rose, they turned toward it and saluted it with cheers—a moment of routine, of discipline, of custom.

    But the Vitellian forces? They saw something else entirely.

    From their vantage point, they misinterpreted the cheers. They saw men celebrating. Greeting something. And their minds, already frayed by the stress of battle, filled in the blanks.

    They thought reinforcements had arrived from the East. That more legions—perhaps even Vespasian’s Syrian forces—had just joined the fray. And in that instant, the psychological tide shifted. The hesitation became panic. The formation became a rout.

    The Vitellian army collapsed.

    Antonius’ forces stormed their camp, cutting down those who resisted and scattering the rest. Then they turned to Cremona, the city that had sheltered Vitellius’ supporters.

    Cremona surrendered.

    The war wasn’t over, but the back of Vitellius’ power had been broken.

    Now, Antonius marched on Rome.

    Vitellius, once the most powerful man in the empire, was now a man without an empire. His supporters—once so eager to pledge their loyalty—began to disappear like shadows at dusk.

    He knew what was coming.

    Tacitus tells us that Vitellius attempted to abdicate. At Mevania, he waited for Vespasian’s representatives to arrive, and with them, the terms of his surrender. In a world that had seen emperors rise and fall, perhaps this could be done with dignity. Perhaps he could step down peacefully.

    But Rome was not a city built on peaceful transitions of power.

    The Praetorian Guard—Vitellius’ own protectors—refused to let it happen. He was on his way to the Temple of Concord, the sacred place where the insignia of empire was to be laid down, relinquished. But the guards intercepted him and forced him back to the palace.

    When Antonius’ troops entered the capital, Rome surprisingly fought back. Vitellius’ remaining supporters—many of them not even soldiers, but civilians—didn’t surrender. They entrenched themselves in the streets, turning Rome’s very buildings into fortresses. From the rooftops, they rained down stones, javelins, and shattered tiles on the advancing Flavian forces. In the alleyways, they fought like cornered animals.

    The cost was staggering. Cassius Dio tells us that 50,000 people died in this battle for Rome. And the destruction wasn’t just human. Fire and chaos consumed whole districts. The Temple of Jupiter Optimus Maximus—Rome’s most sacred temple, the very symbol of its supremacy—was destroyed.

    Vitellius, meanwhile, was no longer an emperor. He was a fugitive. Tacitus tells us he was found in a doorkeeper’s lodge, trembling in the shadows, hoping against hope that he could still slip away, still disappear into the cracks of history. But there was no escape for fallen emperors.

    They dragged him out. Through the streets of the city that had once cheered his name, past the ruins of the battle he had lost, to the most infamous execution site in Rome: The Gemonian Stairs.

    They beat him, mocked him, humiliated him. And as the final blows fell, Vitellius spoke his last words:

    “Yet I was once your emperor.”

    And with that, the Year of the Four Emperors came to an end.

    The next day, on December 21, in the year of 69, the Senate—those same men who had so quickly sworn loyalty to Galba, then to Otho, then to Vitellius—declared Vespasian emperor.

    And so, without leading an army in person, without even setting foot in the capital until a year later, Vespasian won the war.

    And Rome, exhausted and battered, was finally at peace.

    Vespasian’s reign would be one of stability, of restoration, of practicality. He would repair what had been broken, restore the economy, and—perhaps most importantly—rewrite the history of what had just happened.

    The historians of his time—Tacitus, Suetonius, Josephus—they all wrote with suspicious admiration for the new emperor. Tacitus owed his career to Vespasian. Josephus, once a rebel in Judea, now called Vespasian his patron and savior. 

    Coincidence? Maybe. But power doesn’t just win wars. It wins narratives.

    Galba, Otho, and Vitellius were condemned as failures, as weak or corrupt or gluttonous. Vespasian? He was the savior. The restorer. The man who brought order out of chaos.

    That’s the story Rome remembers.

    That’s the story he made sure would be told.

  • Courtside Chaos

    Chris: What’s up, everyone? Welcome back to Courtside Chaos! I’m Chris, here with my buddy Tom, and today we’ve got something exciting – the NBA All-Star Weekend! We’re talking all the best bets and player props, and trust us, this year’s tournament-style All-Star Game is shaking things up!

    Tom: That’s right, Chris! And we’ve got some seriously fun odds on FanDuel to dive into, because this year’s event is far from your typical All-Star Game. With the new team format and a first-to-40 battle, it’s anyone’s game. And we’re gonna help you find those hidden gems. Let’s start with the action, right out of the gate!

    Chris: Let’s do it! First up, we’ve got Team Kenny’s “Young Stars” going up against Team Chuck’s “Global Stars.” Now, on paper, Team Chuck looks pretty stacked—but here’s the catch: no Giannis, no Luka, and honestly, their roster isn’t built for the quick, high-scoring pace that this format demands.

    Tom: Yeah, and that’s why I’m liking Team Kenny’s Young Stars at +144 on FanDuel. These guys are playing with a chip on their shoulder – think Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham – all these guys have something to prove. And when you look at the three-point shooting, the Young Stars have the edge.

    Chris: Exactly. And if we’re talking player props, here’s one that’s caught my eye on FanDuel: Tyler Herro to score 6+ points at +134. Now, I know there’s been some debate on whether he should be in this game with LaMelo Ball out, but Herro’s got the game to prove he belongs.

    Tom: For sure. Herro’s a guy who can knock down shots—he’s averaging over seven attempts from three a game. I could see him coming off the bench and draining a couple of triples. You’ve got that at FanDuel for plus money, so it’s a solid bet to consider.

    Chris:
    Totally! And now, let’s switch over to the match-up between Team Shaq’s OGs and Team Candace’s Rising Stars. This is where things get fun. Team Shaq’s got all the big names – KD, Curry, you name it. But on the other side, we’ve got Team Candace with guys like Amen Thompson, who’s playing out of his mind.

    Tom: Yeah, and that’s why I’m looking at the line for Team Candace’s Rising Stars at +6.5 at FanDuel. That’s a lot of points to cover, especially in a game where defense isn’t exactly going to be the main focus. And you know these young guys are going to play their hearts out.

    Chris: Absolutely. I think this is going to be a high-energy game, and FanDuel has this one lined up perfectly. And speaking of Team Candace, don’t sleep on Kevin Durant to score 6+ points at +102. Durant’s game is all about the pull-up jumper, and there’s no one on the Rising Stars roster who can match his size or skill.

    Tom: Oh, I’m all over that one. I’m expecting KD to come out hot, knock down a couple of shots, and hit that 6-point mark easily. And if you’re looking for some longer shots, Durant’s odds to win MVP at +1800 on FanDuel are really interesting. He could easily go off in this setting.

    Chris: Yeah, that’s a great value bet right there. And let’s talk about the NBA All-Star Tournament winner. Team Shaq is the favorite at +100, but I’m putting my money on Team Kenny’s Young Stars at +450. They’ve got a mix of hunger and talent, and they’ve got six players in the top-18 for player impact estimate. Don’t sleep on them.

    Tom: I like that pick, Chris. Team Kenny has no shortage of talent. If you’re betting on them, those odds at +450 are definitely worth a look. You can grab all these odds and more at FanDuel, where they have a ton of markets for All-Star Weekend. Whether you’re into moneylines, props, or futures, FanDuel has got you covered.

    Chris: Exactly! Whether you’re new to sports betting or a seasoned pro, FanDuel makes it easy to get in on the action. And remember, folks, always bet responsibly. This is about having fun, enjoying the game, and, of course, getting in on some of those juicy odds!

    Tom: Definitely. Thanks to FanDuel for making this episode possible, and for providing us with all the odds we need to make this All-Star Weekend even more exciting. That’s all we’ve got for today—get in there, place your bets, and let’s see how this tournament shakes out!

    Chris: And be sure to tune into the NBA All-Star Tournament. It’s gonna be a blast, and don’t forget to check out FanDuel for all your bets. Good luck, everyone!

    Tom: Catch you next time on Courtside Chaos—we’ll be back with more picks, analysis, and all the latest NBA drama. And remember, get all your All-Star bets in on FanDuel—your one-stop shop for everything NBA! Stay tuned!

  • Year of the Four Emperors: Otho (Part 3)

    Welcome to Imperial History, the podcast where we explore the epic stories of empires that shaped the world, from their triumphant rises to their dramatic falls. I’m your host, Eric Alexander.

    In our last episode, the first of the four emperors of the chaotic year 69 met his end at the hands of Otho. But who was Otho?

    A man of noble Etruscan blood, Otho was no stranger to the intrigues of the imperial court. He had once stood among Nero’s closest confidants—a companion in excess, a fellow reveler in the extravagant world of the young emperor. For a time, he basked in the glow of imperial favor, indulging in the limitless pleasures that came with proximity to absolute power. But in Rome, favor was as fleeting as a whisper in the Senate halls, and friendships among emperors were nothing more than illusions, dissolving the moment they became inconvenient.

    Otho’s great misfortune—if misfortune is the right word—was falling in love with the wrong woman. Or perhaps, more accurately, having a woman whom the wrong man desired. That woman was Poppaea Sabina, a vision of beauty and ambition, the same Poppaea who had ensnared Nero himself. And when an emperor desires something, desire does not remain merely a wish—it becomes law.

    Nero, with the effortless cruelty of a godling toying with mortals, ordered Otho to step aside. He was not merely asked to surrender his wife—he was commanded to. His marriage was to be erased, not by his will, but by the emperor’s whim. And Otho? He was not just discarded—he was exiled.

    But Nero, ever theatrical, did not send him away in chains. No, that was too crude. Instead, Otho was handed the governorship of Lusitania, a province on the far western fringes of the empire. On paper, it was an honor. In reality, it was a gilded cage, a polite banishment to a provincial backwater—a place where old ambitions were meant to wither and die.

    Yet, Otho did something unexpected. He thrived.

    Unlike so many disgraced courtiers who faded into obscurity, he did not wallow in self-pity or plot reckless revenge. Instead, he ruled Lusitania with surprising competence and discipline. For a decade, he proved himself an able administrator, a man capable of governing wisely, not merely indulging in luxury. He became something few in Rome would have expected—a statesman.

    But a man like Otho, a man who had once stood in the shadow of emperors, does not simply forget the taste of power. And when the empire trembled once more, when Rome found itself on the brink of another upheaval, Otho was ready.

    He played the part of the loyal provincial administrator, a governor content with his quiet exile. But beneath the surface, a wound festered, one that time did not heal—it only deepened.

    If Otho had truly loved Poppaea, one can only imagine his reaction upon hearing of her death. The rumors were grotesque—whispers that Nero, in one of his infamous fits of rage, had struck her down himself. A brutal, ignoble end for the woman he had once called his wife. Nero had stolen everything from him—his marriage, his position, his future. And Otho would never forget.

    So when rebellion flared in the year of 68, when the governor of Hispania Tarraconensis, a grizzled old senator named Galba, dared to defy the emperor, Otho saw more than just a coup. He saw revenge. He pledged his forces, his wealth—his very soul—to Galba’s cause. He marched with the rebel legions toward Rome, his heart burning with the thought that soon, Nero would pay for what he had done.

    Then the news came. The Senate had declared Nero a public enemy. The Praetorian Guard had abandoned him. And then, at the final moment, Nero took his own life.

    One wonders how Otho reacted to this. Did he rejoice at the downfall of his old enemy? Or was there a flicker of disappointment that he had been denied the satisfaction of seeing it for himself? Did he curse fate for robbing him of the chance to drive the dagger into Nero’s chest with his own hands?

    But revolutions are fickle things. One moment, a rebel is a liberator—the next, just another tired old man on a crumbling throne. And Galba was very much an old man. He was rigid, austere—too stiff-backed to navigate the bloody tides of Roman politics. And then, he made a fatal mistake.

    Otho had gambled everything on Galba’s rebellion. He had expected a reward, a recognition of his loyalty. Surely he would be named heir. Surely his sacrifices had not been in vain. But when Galba chose his successor, it was not Otho. It was another.

    Otho turned to the Praetorian Guard—the true kingmakers of Rome. He whispered promises of gold and power, rekindling the greed that had always lurked within their ranks. And on January 15, in the year of 69, they answered his call.

    Galba was cut down, his body was butchered, his severed head paraded on a pike. His lifeless corpse was left for the mob to trample underfoot. And in the span of a single bloody day, Otho was emperor.

    Ironically, despite the hatred he bore for Nero, Otho knew that the people of the city had loved the fallen emperor, especially in comparison to Galba. And so, with the calculating mind of a man who understood the weight of public favor, he ordered Nero’s statues restored. His freedmen and household officers—men Galba had cast aside—were given back their positions. It was a move not of sentiment, but of strategy.

    For all his thirst for vengeance, Otho knew that emperors did not rule by strength alone. They ruled by perception. And in a city as treacherous as Rome, perception was everything.

    Otho had barely settled into the imperial purple before reality came crashing down—a truth so stark, so immutable, that no amount of political cunning or backroom maneuvering could change it. His reign was nearly over before it had even begun.

    The moment he cracked open Galba’s private correspondence, the illusion of stability shattered. In the frigid north, far from the marble halls of Rome, the legions had already made their choice. And it was not him.

    Their loyalty belonged to another—Aulus Vitellius, the commander of the Rhine legions. A man of indulgence, yes, but also a man backed by some of the toughest, most battle-hardened soldiers in the empire. And worse still, they weren’t waiting for senatorial decrees or diplomatic overtures. They were already marching south.

    Otho was no fool. He recognized the danger immediately. In a rare moment of restraint, he attempted a compromise, extending an offer to Vitellius—perhaps they could share power, rule as joint emperors, divide the vast Roman world between them. It was a desperate bid for stability, an attempt to halt the march of war before it reached Italy’s doorstep.

    But men like Vitellius don’t share. His legions weren’t marching for diplomacy. They were marching for spoils. The die had been cast as Julius Caesar would say. Or, for a more modern perspective, when you play the game of thrones, you either win or you die.

    And so, Otho prepared for war.

    His position wasn’t entirely hopeless—not yet. The distant provinces remained indifferent, their governors watching, waiting to see who would emerge victorious before pledging their allegiance. But the legions of Dalmatia, Pannonia, and Moesia? They had sworn loyalty to him. The Praetorians, those elite household troops who had put him on the throne in the first place, were still his to command, their devotion secured by silver and imperial favor. And, crucially, Otho held control over the imperial fleet, giving him mastery of the Italian seas.

    It wasn’t an overwhelming force. It wasn’t even an even fight. But it was enough—if he played his cards right.

    The problem was, Otho’s court was anything but disciplined. Inside his war camp, debate raged like a wildfire. His seasoned officers—men who had fought real wars, who had seen empires rise and fall—urged caution. Time, they argued, was on their side. The legions from Dalmatia were still marching, reinforcements that could shift the balance if only Otho could wait.

    But patience is a virtue rarely afforded to those who sit on a stolen throne.

    His brother, Titianus, and the hotheaded prefect of the Praetorians, Proculus, whispered poison into his ear. Waiting was weakness, they insisted. Delay would only embolden Vitellius. Every moment wasted was a moment their enemy grew stronger. Otho had seized power through boldness—why hesitate now?

    And Otho listened.

    The result was catastrophe.

    Desperate to crush the rebellion before it could properly take root, Otho ordered his forces into the field. The two armies met in the plains of northern Italy. The Battle of Bedriacum. It should have been the moment that secured his rule. Instead, it was his undoing.

    Forty thousand men left dead in the mud.

    And in the end, it was Otho’s army that broke and collapsed into retreat.

    Yet even now, even in defeat, all was not lost. The war could have continued. His forces were still considerable. The battle-hardened legions of Dalmatia had already reached Aquileia. His soldiers—men who had followed him into this desperate gamble—were still loyal, still willing to fight. The setbacks had wounded them, yes, but they had not lost faith in the cause. They were ready for another round.

    But Otho was not.

    It was a decision that seemed almost un-Roman in its selflessness. A man who had schemed, who had plunged a dagger into Galba’s rule, who had seized the empire with blood and iron, now chose to relinquish it.

    Not through exile.
    Not through negotiation.
    But through an act that would etch his name into history.

    He gathered his officers—his closest men—and spoke his final words. The line, recorded by historians, is haunting in its simplicity:

    “It is far more just to perish one for all, than many for one.”

    And with that, Otho withdrew.

    He did not rage. He did not despair. He did not flee.

    Instead, he lay down to rest, as though all the weight of empire—the crushing burden of ruling a world teetering on the brink—had already lifted from his shoulders. When the morning came, he reached for a dagger hidden beneath his pillow, pressed it against his chest, and with one swift, decisive motion, ended it.

    By the time his attendants rushed in, it was already too late. The man who had seized an empire with blood had now relinquished it in blood—his own.

    They burned his body swiftly, just as he had commanded. No grand spectacle, no elaborate funeral games, no triumphant oratory about divine favor or the eternal glory of Rome. Just flames and ashes. And that was it.

    Ninety-one days on the throne. And then—nothing.

    But that’s not quite true, is it? Because the manner of his death—that was what transformed him.

    In life, Otho had been a usurper, a schemer, a man whose name was whispered with disdain in the halls of power. To the Senate, he had been a parvenu, a man who had slithered his way into the imperial purple by bribing the Praetorian Guard and cutting down Galba in the streets. To the aristocracy, he had been an unremarkable shadow of Nero, tainted by his association with the debauched excesses of the fallen emperor’s court.

    But in death, he became something else entirely.

    Because Romans, ever attuned to the ideals of virtus, of noble sacrifice, began to see Otho through a different lens. Here was a man who could have prolonged the war, could have let his legions fight another battle, spill more Roman blood, unleash another round of horror upon an already fractured empire. But he chose not to. He chose to die so that others might live, to end the bloodshed before it spiraled into something far worse.

    Even Tacitus, no great admirer of imperial usurpers, was struck by the weight of this act. He tells us that some of Otho’s soldiers—hardened veterans of Rome’s endless campaigns—chose to die alongside him. They threw themselves upon their own swords at his funeral pyre, unwilling to live in a world where their emperor, their commander, no longer existed. These were not court sycophants or desperate politicians looking to preserve favor—these were warriors, men who had spent their lives in the business of death. And yet, something in Otho’s final moments stirred them. It meant something.

    It is one of the great ironies of history that men often become more in death than they ever were in life. Nero, a man who had ruled for fourteen years, left behind little more than a trail of infamy. Otho, a man who ruled for three months, left behind a legacy of self-sacrifice, of an emperor who chose death over civil war.

    And so, his story came to an end.

    But Rome? Rome was not done tearing itself apart.

    With Otho gone, the imperial throne passed to Vitellius, the man for whom so much blood had already been spilled. But this was The Year of the Four Emperors—and the empire was still in turmoil.

    Because even as Vitellius settled into his rule, another contender was rising in the east. A general. A veteran of Rome’s wars. A man whose name would not only end this period of chaos but lay the foundation for a new dynasty.

    His name was Vespasian.